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Prediction markets for Parliament

How many people will be criminally charged in Ukraine for the murder of Irina Farion, former member of parliament?

Jul 22, 5:29 AMSep 1, 5:59 AM

1314115

Will The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?

Jul 21, 1:09 PMAug 16, 10:59 PM

3.37%chance

2112985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5357

187

Will there be a Scottish Parliament election by the end of 2025?

Apr 29, 12:39 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

2.38%chance

126552

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7303

375

Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?

Mar 30, 2:48 AMSep 21, 3:59 AM

37.92%chance

242650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

737

Will transnational lists be implemented for the European Parliament elections in 2029?

May 18, 3:50 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

30.67%chance

122156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

665

Will Parliament return before the end of planned Summer Recess 2025?

Jul 30, 5:44 AMAug 31, 5:42 AM

9.81%chance

42092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3032

330

Will a new party be elected to NZ Parliament by 2030?

Nov 6, 10:25 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

24.12%chance

232071

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1231

856

Will the European Parliament pass a no-confidence vote against the Commission during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 19, 3:12 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

10.19%chance

52021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2969

337

Will Polish parliament equalize the retirement age for men and women before 2030?

Jan 27, 12:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.01%chance

17902

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1435

666

Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?

Jan 13, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21.5%chance

20465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

911

Will Polish parliament raise the retirement age before 2030?

Jan 27, 12:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.26%chance

10157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

989

Will there be a hung parliament following the next UK general election?

May 5, 6:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

9152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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