Part One News

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability.

NO

trump is impeached by either house OR senate

Bitcoin reaches 200K usd or more

a second cybertruck explodes (intended or unintended) that makes the news

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube

this market reaches 100 traders

undersea cables reported cut around taiwan

EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26

Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

English Wikipedia reaches 70M PAGES or more

israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will

Saw XI Releases in USA

alan greenspan passes away

coup in an african country

noam chomsky passes away

chinese spy balloon incident reported on news

openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo

another trump assassination attempt

this market reaches 5k individual TRADES

discord IPO happens

2025 nobel peace prize winner announced

Hades 3 announced (game)

EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28

Last game of the MLB World Series ends

the "500 poll" reaches its target goal of 500 responses

Taylor Swift announce engagement or marriage

zootopia 2 releases

Spacex launches 150th rocket of the year

EOD Halloween - Oct 31

First game of the MLB World Series starts

manifold raises more money

EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9

MLB rookie of the year announced

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 75M views on Youtube

Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more

stripe ipo happens

Legally Blonde 3 release date announced

GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)

Cy Young award winner announced

Third dune movie officially announced

trump removes a cabinet member

windows 12 announcement is made

Skibidi Toilet ends their original series

Imu face reveal in One Piece manga

the third Atlantic hurricane of the season

someone reaches 100k traders on creator leaderboard

onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube

trump starts mass deportations

Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year

Skate 4 releases

the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape

Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more

the first Atlantic hurricane of the season

Chat GPT 5 releases to the general userbase

Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse release date announced

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world

Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world

Killing Floor 3 releases on Steam

grok4 release date

the start of Amazon Prime Day(s) 2025

EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4

the third Pacific hurricane of the season

28 years Later releases in USA

the second Pacific hurricane of the season

chime IPO happens

Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year

First Apple Event of the year

the first Pacific hurricane of the season

manifest 2025 ends

Manifest 2025 starts

Mr Beast hits 400M Youtube Subscribers

Bitcoin reaches 110K usd or more

English Wikipedia reaches 7M ARTICLES or more

claude 4 sonnet releases (or later version)

EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5

Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year

Last day of the NFL draft

Llama 4 released to the general userbase

Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video

south korean president removed from power

the first Solar eclipse of the year

First Nintendo direct of the year

trump declares war or orders military actions on another country

Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire

EOD Ides of March - Mar 15

the first Lunar eclipse of the year

EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras

trump enacts new or changed tariffs on mexico

new iphone releases in the USA (official date)

Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year

new iphone release date announced (in the USA)

grok 3 release date

nintendo switch successor announced officially

trump enacts new or changed tariffs on china

CGP Grey releases a new video (not a reupload)

doomsday clock announcement

USA President issues 10th executive order

USA President issues 1st executive order

Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends

YES

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

You are fooled by at least one option on this list, which out of many tries, ends up sufficiently well-aimed at your personal ideals / prejudices / the parts you understand less well / your own personal indulgences in wishful thinking.

Has eye tracking

Has external battery

Has Mac Virtual Display functionality

Comes with only one band, that has a part that goes over the top of your head.

Has built in speakers for audio

Will have a glass front

Sells more than 1 million units in its first year

Priced under $2,000

Has on-device LLM (e.g. through Siri or standalone) integrated

Has "Air" in its name

Primarily made of aluminum

Has an external display (like eyesight)

Is released under another CEO than Tim Cook

Priced under $1000

Will require an iPhone to operate (relies on that for power, compute or storage).

Priced lower than $199

Priced lower than $299

Something that's physical and tangible

Joyboy's treasure

Some sort of drink or cup

A way to connect the four seas, putting the ocean in one piece

Ancient Weapons are part of unlocking one piece

Something that would help with dethroning Imu

One piece is at the same location with the Devil Tree

Binks' Sake

something that fulfills the wish of all of Straw Hat Pirates

YES

YES

YES

NO