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Party of One News

    Prediction markets for Party of One

    Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries?

    Mar 25, 1:59 PMAug 8, 1:30 PM
    12228979

    OptionProbability

    J.B. Pritzker

    Gavin Newsom

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Pete Buttigieg

    Jon Ossoff

    Josh Shapiro

    Kamala Harris

    Cory Booker

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Amy Klobuchar

    Chris Murphy

    Raphael Warnock

    Deval Patrick

    Gina Raimondo

    J. B. Pritzker

    Steve Bullock

    Mark Kelly

    Andy Beshear

    Ro Khanna

    Maura Healey

    Chris Coons

    Jeff Jackson

    Catherine Cortez Masto

    Katie Hobbs

    Tim Walz

    Tina Kotek

    Abigail Spanberger

    Michael Bennet

    Julián Castro

    Beto O'Rourke

    Bill de Blasio

    Jay Inslee

    Jared Polis

    Roy Cooper

    Martin O'Malley

    Cornel West

    Tom Steyer

    Wayne Messam

    Kirsten Gillibrand

    Mitch Landrieu

    Tammy Duckworth

    Tammy Baldwin

    Tim Kaine

    Marianne Williamson

    Eric Swalwell

    Wes Moore

    John Fetterman

    Dean Phillips

    Michelle Obama

    Laphonza Butler

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Steven Kenneth Bonnell II

    66

    50

    42

    33

    30

    25

    23

    18

    16

    10

    9

    9

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    Will Opportunities Party get at least one seat in the next New Zealand General Election?

    Jun 4, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    98.95%chance
    3217435

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    12657

    384

    Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries?

    Mar 25, 2:30 PMAug 8, 1:30 PM
    12916953

    OptionProbability

    J. D. Vance

    Marco Rubio

    Glenn Youngkin

    Nikki Haley

    Ron DeSantis

    Ted Cruz

    Tucker Carlson

    Pete Hegseth

    Josh Hawley

    Brian Kemp

    Doug Burgum

    Will Hurd

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Marjorie Taylor Greene

    Tom Cotton

    Rick Scott

    Todd Young

    Joni Ernst

    Markwayne Mullin

    Chris Sununu

    Elise Stefanik

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Franciz Suarez

    Mike Johnson

    Greg Abbott

    Byron Donalds

    Chris Christie

    Rand Paul

    Kristi Noem

    Mike Lee

    Kim Reynolds

    Dan Crenshaw

    Katie Britt

    Tim Scott

    Mike Pence

    Donald Trump

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Sarah Huckabee Sanders

    Mike Pompeo

    Liz Cheney

    Matt Gaetz

    83

    46

    23

    16

    14

    13

    12

    12

    11

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    9

    9

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    4

    3

    Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]

    Dec 1, 5:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    3215542

    OptionProbability

    Likud is the biggest party after next elections

    Budget law is passed before deadline (end of March)

    Netanyahu claims the elections were stolen due to widespread fraud

    New primary elections for Likud before the general elections

    Religious Zionism–Zehut passes the threshold

    Ra’am passes the threshold

    Speaker of the is replaced within 4 weeks after elections day

    New PM other than Netanyahu

    Opposition block forms a minority coalition with external support of Arab block

    A new government with Likud and Yashar is sweared in before 2027

    Stalemate: no new government, another elections (similar to 2019)

    The first candidate tasked with forming a government fails

    Opposition-led coalition, with temporary support from Arab parties, is sweared in and immediately disbanded - just so Netanyahu will not be caretaker PM

    Elections held before October 27th

    Parliament dissolved before 2026 starts

    Bennet’s new party is the biggest party after the next elections

    Parliament dissolves before budget deadline (end of March)

    Opposition block (ex. Arab parties) wins a majority in the next elections

    More than 6% of eligible votes go to parties below the threshold

    At least one incumbent coalition party fails to cross the electoral threshold

    The largest party wins fewer than 25 seats

    Amcha Yisrael passes the threshold

    Reservists + New Economy passes the threshold

    Blue and White passes the threshold

    Opposition block (ex Arabs) wins more seats than coalition block; Netanyahu declares victory

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    80

    60

    53

    50

    48

    38

    22

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    What will the Party distribution of the next 2 US presidential terms be? (2029-2037) [> 6k Liquidity]

    Jul 29, 11:48 AMMay 31, 9:59 PM
    158561

    OptionProbability

    D-D

    D-R

    R-D

    R-R

    one or more Third Party terms

    Other

    Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection

    Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection

    Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection

    Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection

    34

    23

    20

    14

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election?

    Jul 12, 5:20 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM
    335035

    OptionProbability

    One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK

    Weak electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 500 or fewer constituencies

    5 or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK in a coordinated way

    Strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 100 or fewer constituencies

    The leaders of Reform UK and the Conservative Party announce a merge of the parties

    One or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party

    Very strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives do not run against each other in any constituencies

    3 or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party in a coordinated way

    Richard Tice defects to the Conservative Party

    Nigel Farage defects to the Conservative Party

    100

    51

    39

    32

    31

    27

    18

    18

    12

    8

    How will the 🇬🇧 Liberal Democrats and Green Party co-operate before the next General Election?

    Feb 28, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    81236

    OptionProbability

    Soft electoral pact: parties do not actively campaign in seats where the other stands a strong chance of success

    The parties have issued a joint press statement

    Hard electoral pact: parties do not stand against each other in seats they contest

    The parties have merged into one

    45

    43

    16

    5

    Will there a 3rd party candidate win at least one state in the US presidential election before the US adds a 51st state

    Mar 31, 9:31 PMDec 8, 4:59 AM
    25%chance
    10354

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    322

    192

    Will India officially become a One party country/nation before the end of 2030? (Similar to China's political system)

    Jan 24, 4:57 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
    14.71%chance
    7338

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    222

    65

    How many female British PMs will be Tories before another party elects one?

    Apr 22, 1:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    9280

    OptionProbability

    3-4

    4-5

    5-6

    6-7

    7-8

    8-9

    9-10

    10-11

    11-12

    12-13

    84

    14

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    What would be the odds for the following people to win the 2028 US election if nominated by one of the two main parties?

    Mar 11, 4:40 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM
    7123

    OptionProbability

    Donald Trump(Sr)

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Pete Buttigieg

    Michelle Obama

    Steven Bonell (Destiny)

    Tim Walz

    Gavin Newsom

    Ron DeSantis

    Josh Shapiro

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Tim Scott

    Nikki Haley

    Andy Beshear

    Glenn Youngkin

    J.D. Vance

    Kamala Harris

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    67

    61

    60

    56

    53

    52

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    41

    40

    30

    Will the 21st Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party, to be selected in 2027, include at least one woman?

    Mar 27, 3:20 AMJan 27, 3:59 PM
    52.05%chance
    561

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    126

    91

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