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Prediction markets for Pew
Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?
Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM
26.43%chance
1518900
OptionVotes
1669
599
AI More Important as a Voting Topic Than Abortion? (2028 US Presidential)
Dec 22, 6:04 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM
61.03%chance
174029
OptionVotes
1252
799
Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?
Apr 13, 8:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM
38.29%chance
462486
OptionVotes
1464
458
More than 70% of U.S. population believe Trump is too old to be president by EOY 2026
Jan 22, 8:36 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM
37.87%chance
251927
OptionVotes
1281
781
At the beginning of 2027, will Americans like Sam Altman more than they like Mark Zuckerberg?
Apr 4, 5:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
54.12%chance
331647
OptionVotes
1121
795
Will a romantic relationship with an AI chatbot comprise 25% of all relationships within the USA before the year 2030?
Aug 28, 10:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11.66%chance
241443
OptionVotes
1414
896
OptionVotes
168
60
OptionProbability
115
101
Will belief in sex/gender distinction reach 2022 levels again before 2030?
Feb 23, 2:47 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM
65.99%chance
6210
OptionVotes
379
243
OptionProbability
46
22
16
12
5
Conditional on Nevada voting No on Question 3 in 2024, what will turnout be in their next primary elections?
Dec 21, 7:44 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM
32.2%chance
497
OptionVotes
105
102
Will MAGA represent more than 20% of the electorate after January 2029?
Mar 13, 10:36 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM
32.42%chance
473
OptionVotes
144
69
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