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Prediction markets for Pod
Will Lex Friedman host a podcast from space before the end of 2027?
Jan 16, 11:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
3.56%chance
6714668
OptionVotes
5208
192
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026?
Mar 5, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
16.97%chance
609703
OptionVotes
2313
222
Will the podcast “Dear Hank and John” be renamed “Dear John and Hank” in 2028?
Jun 23, 3:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
81.42%chance
85728
OptionVotes
2094
478
OptionProbability
100
100
100
74
73
73
70
66
65
45
45
41
34
33
32
31
31
29
29
24
24
24
23
20
18
18
16
15
15
14
12
12
10
9
8
6
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
1197
355
Nejlepší řečník/řečnice 32. ročníku debatní ligy v českém jazyce podle ADK
Jun 12, 12:19 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
92229
OptionProbability
15
13
12
11
10
7
5
5
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Will Leopold Aschenbrenner go on a podcast by EOY 2026?
Sep 20, 8:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.55%chance
10720
OptionVotes
1056
101
Will the Podfic version of Animorphs: The Reckoning finish by January 1st, 2028?
Aug 14, 2:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
34.32%chance
2385
OptionVotes
1383
723
OptionProbability
62
51
50
41
34
31
24
11
8
Which multistrategy hedge fund (pod shop) will blow up by 2027 year end?
Oct 9, 12:53 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
490
OptionProbability
53
10
10
10
10
8
OptionProbability
28
20
20
19
13
Will "The inaugural Redwood Research podcast" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jan 7, 2:22 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
122
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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