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Pod News

    Prediction markets for Pod

    Will Lex Friedman host a podcast from space before the end of 2027?

    Jan 16, 11:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    3.56%chance
    6714668

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    5208

    192

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2313

    222

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2094

    478

    OptionProbability

    [Decathlon] 6 or more WorldTour victories

    [Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege

    [Alpecin] Jasper Philipsen wins Gent-Wevelgem

    [UAE] 40 or more WorldTour victories

    [Uno-X] 4 or more WorldTour victories

    [FDJ-Suez] Demi Vollering scores the most UCI points of any woman in 2026

    [Red Bull-BORA] Florian Lipowitz places better than Remco Evenepoel at the Tour de France

    [Decathlon] Top 6 in the UCI rankings in 2026

    [Lotto-Intermarche] 13 or more victories (.1 or higher)

    [Lidl-Trek] Do not podium any Grand Tour GC

    [Lidl-Trek] Juan Ayuso podiums the Vuelta a España GC

    [Soudal-Quickstep] 15 or more WorldTour victories

    [Lidl-Trek] 23 or more WorldTour victories

    [Red Bull-BORA] 15 or more WorldTour victories

    [Uno-X] Jonas Abrahamsen wins 2 or more Grand Tour stages

    [Uno-X] Johannes Kulset scores 1000 or more UCI points

    [Lidl-Trek] Mattias Skjelmose leaves the team before the end of 2026

    [Red Bull-BORA] Finish on the podium in GC in all three Grand Tours

    [Ineos] Sam Welsford wins 4 times as many races (or more) as Arne Marit

    [Lidl-Trek] Mads Pedersen does not win a WorldTour race

    [Ineos] Joshua Tarling wins more time trials than Remco Evenepoel

    [Lotto-Intermarche] 4 or more WorldTour victories

    [Decathlon] Olav Kooij wins 4 or more WorldTour races

    [Ineos] Egan Bernal and Brandon Rivera sign with Movistar before EOY 2026

    [Uno-X] Do not finish in the top 10 of any Grand Tour GC

    [Visma] Matthew Brennan wins 3 Vuelta stages + the green jersey

    [Lidl-Trek] 3rd in UCI points for the 2026 season

    [Alpecin] Win the points classification in two Grand Tours

    [Visma] Sepp Kuss finishes better than Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour de France

    [Visma] A French rider on Visma wins a WorldTour stage race GC

    [Uno-X] Adne Holter scores 1000 or more UCI points

    [Visma] Bruno Armirail wins a Tour de France stage

    [NSN] Biniam Girmay wins a 1.UWT race

    [Decathlon] Paul Seixas wins Il Lombardia

    [UAE] Antonio Morgado podiums a 1.UWT classic race

    [Visma] Wilco Kelderman wins a race

    [Red Bull-BORA] Laurence Pithie podiums a Monument

    [Lidl-Trek] Mathias Vacek wins a cobbled classic

    [Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums the Giro d'Italia

    [Decathlon] Win a stage in all three Grand Tours

    [Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins a Giro d'Italia stage

    [Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins the King of the Mountains at the Giro d'Italia

    [Soudal-Quickstep] Ilan van Wilder has a better average finishing position than Remco Evenepoel in the Ardennes classics (Amstel, Fleche, LBL)

    [UAE] Tadej Pogacar wins all five Monuments

    [NSN] Corbin Strong podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege

    [Visma] Timo Kielich finishes in the top 5 at Paris-Roubaix

    [Visma] Matthew Brennan wins Milan-San Remo

    100

    100

    100

    74

    73

    73

    70

    66

    65

    45

    45

    41

    34

    33

    32

    31

    31

    29

    29

    24

    24

    24

    23

    20

    18

    18

    16

    15

    15

    14

    12

    12

    10

    9

    8

    6

    3

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Will we get in the pod and eat the bugs?

    Sep 14, 5:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    40.2%chance
    332567

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1197

    355

    OptionProbability

    František Jemelka

    Kryštof Olša

    JULIE DOMANSKÁ

    Patrik Prokeš

    Matěj Snášel

    Zuzana Stachovská

    Jonáš Houdek

    Jakub Novák

    František Chudárek

    Yuri Požár

    Viktor Jirků

    Jakub Varga

    Renáta Danišova

    Martin Šnejdar

    Matěj Harašta

    Anna Belatkova

    Vít Zetek

    Kateřina Farnikova

    Vojtěch Nádvorník

    Tadeáš Foldyna

    Michael Kramář

    Barbora Handlová

    Natalie Waldaufova

    Tomáš Churý

    Prokop Juránek

    Jana Schmidová

    Kateřina Škorpilová

    Jan Cetl

    Jakub Grambal

    Johana Volková

    15

    13

    12

    11

    10

    7

    5

    5

    3

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Will Leopold Aschenbrenner go on a podcast by EOY 2026?

    Sep 20, 8:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    71.55%chance
    10720

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1056

    101

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1383

    723

    Who will Hunter Biden do an interview with in 2026?

    May 18, 8:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    5216

    OptionProbability

    Breaking Points, Krystal Kyle and Friends OR Drop Site News

    Zeteo

    Megyn Kelly

    Glenn Greenwald

    Pod Save America

    Ben Shapiro

    Tucker Carlson

    Nick Fuentes

    The Young Turks

    62

    51

    50

    41

    34

    31

    24

    11

    8

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Millennium

    Citadel

    Point72

    Balyasny

    None

    53

    10

    10

    10

    10

    8

    OptionProbability

    3 pods

    4 pods

    5 pods

    1 pod

    2 pods

    28

    20

    20

    19

    13

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