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Prediction markets for Pod
Will Lex Friedman host a podcast from space before the end of 2027?
Jan 16, 11:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
6%chance
6713418
OptionVotes
3958
253
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026?
Mar 5, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
9.94%chance
599046
OptionVotes
2817
146
Will the podcast “Dear Hank and John” be renamed “Dear John and Hank” in 2028?
Jun 23, 3:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
81.42%chance
75628
OptionVotes
2094
478
OptionVotes
1197
355
📼What shows, series and podcasts will end in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Mar 14, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
17840
OptionProbability
67
41
33
28
27
25
25
25
20
18
18
18
16
16
15
13
12
Will Leopold Aschenbrenner go on a podcast by EOY 2026?
Sep 20, 8:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
70.23%chance
9670
OptionVotes
1536
651
Will any current NATO head of state start a podcast and release at least 5 episodes before 2030?
Sep 11, 3:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
57.42%chance
10164
OptionVotes
210
130
Will the Podfic version of Animorphs: The Reckoning finish by January 1st, 2028?
Aug 14, 2:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
43.77%chance
1135
OptionVotes
1133
882
Which multistrategy hedge fund (pod shop) will blow up by 2027 year end?
Oct 9, 12:53 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
490
OptionProbability
53
10
10
10
10
8
OptionVotes
1051
952
OptionProbability
28
20
20
19
13
Will "The inaugural Redwood Research podcast" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jan 7, 2:22 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
122
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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