OptionProbability
Lionel Messi to score at least one goal
Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage
USA survives group stage
2+ red cards in any match
Goal from last kick of the game
Mexico survives group stage
3+ red cards in any match
6+ yellow cards in any match
Red card issued for mouth covering
Black player gets the red card
Bicycle kick attempt
Team scores after being down to 10 men
Both teams score in stoppage time
Player scores against country of birth/heritage
Player bleeding on camera during match
Team loses possession from delay throw-in
Player scores a hat-trick
Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match
Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match
Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)
Team finishes match with 9 players
French-born player scores against France
Goal scored directly from a free-kick
A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament
Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals
“Puto” chant at match
Referee falls down
Any host places 1st in their group
Curaçao scores a goal
Haaland scores over 3.5 goals
Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands
At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal
gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury
Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick
Cape Verde scores a goal
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200
Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal
3+ penalty shootout
Canada survives group stage
Team with 0 wins in Group Stage
Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan
Trump still alive at end of final match
The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals
Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer
Fan hospitalized for heat related illness
20+ penalty goals
Over 9.5 own goals scored
Over 10.5 red cards
Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined
Trump attends match
Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match
Players cleat falls off their foot
Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?
Neymar plays in a match
Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded
A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)
US scores in every single group stage match
Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)
Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet
VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions
South American team reaches semi-final
Champion is unbeaten
Bottle thrown on field
Champion is a first place group stage winner
Ronaldo to cry at the world cup
Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)
2+ European countries reach top 4
Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row
Asian player misses penalty kick
Messi scores a goal at 39 years old
Ronaldo gets in referee face
Messi gets a yellow card
Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match
Any host nation in quarter final
Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt
Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)
Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?
The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner
Team loses after leading 2-0
5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)
Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament
No red cards issued in the Final match
A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.
US goes further than Mexico
Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing
Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?
The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner
Freddy attends the final match
Both teams in final have red on their flag
Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)
Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage
Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits
Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick
Over 289.5 total goals scored*
Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match
Someone escorted off field shirtless
More own goals than red cards in tourney
Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament
Elon Musk attends match
Asian player gets the red card
USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further
15+ minutes of the stoppage time
Messi to score a free kick
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300
Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)
Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness
A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message
Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match
Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium
2 UEFA teams in final
Player tears their ACL
Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours
Flares in stands during match in USA
Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor
Spain goes further than France
Laser pointer on goalie during match
Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup
Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match
Goal scored within 1st minute
Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved
VAR overturns second yellow card
Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption
Any match is canceled or postponed
The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals
30+ penalty goals
USA player gets the red card
Disruption at Iran match
Betting scandal reported
Canada goes further than US
Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal
3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup
Match has a dedicated moment of silence
Ronaldo does not start
Team captain gets red card
Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?
6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage
Winning team has a foreign manager
Bald person gets the red card
Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass
Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match
Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)
Over 395.5 yellow cards
Both players in this photo* play each other in a match
Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)
A penalty shootout to decide the Final match
Fans invade field during match
Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match
Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs
World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage
Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)
First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved
Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties
Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs
Smoke bomb during match in USA
Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player
Messi scores on every game he plays
The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists
Player gets spat on during match
25+ people arrested at stadium
Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo
Salt Bae attending a match
Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)
Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards
Freddy shown during a match broadcast
England loses on penalties
Final features a team that has never made it to the final before
Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline
Animal (not birdy) is on field during match
Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final
An African nation to reach the Semi-finals
ICE makes a capture at the stadium
Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)
Goal scored from own half
Haaland scores on every game he plays
Player throws captains armband
Headbutt during match
Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match
Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?
Champion is a first time World Cup winner
Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average
Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)
All 48 teams score at least 1 goal
Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)
Another match with 3+ red cards
Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage
Football is coming home?
Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands
All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage
Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament
King Charles attends match
Asia team reaches semi final
Player walks off pitch protesting referee
Trump attends 3 or more games
Team wins a match without making a single substitution
Major security incident
Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?
German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt
15+ cards in any match
Player bit during match
Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer
Bonnie Blue attending a match
Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot
Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)
Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)
Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium
Match is forfeited
Trump dancing at match
The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds
10+ goals in any match
An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag
Team gets removed or disqualified
Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament
The Netherlands does not survive group stage
Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal
Team finishes third in group and makes it to final
Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card
USA plays Iran
Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)
Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400
Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant
Player shits in the pants during match
Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds
Omar Artan is at a World Cup match
Players / members of team attempt to defect
Confirmed case of Ebola at the match
Ronaldo does jerkin move
A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner
Player suffers cardiac arrest
A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points
Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)
Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match
Player dies during World Cup
Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant
All 3 host countries win the opener
Ronaldo scores before Messi
4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
99
99
99
99
98
97
96
96
94
94
93
93
91
91
90
90
88
86
85
84
82
82
81
80
80
80
80
80
77
76
76
76
76
75
75
72
70
66
66
66
64
64
63
63
61
61
60
58
58
57
56
55
54
54
54
53
52
50
50
50
50
49
49
48
48
48
47
47
46
46
45
45
44
44
43
43
43
42
41
41
41
40
40
39
39
39
38
38
38
37
37
36
36
35
35
35
34
32
31
31
30
30
29
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
28
27
26
26
25
25
25
25
24
24
24
24
22
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
9
8
7
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)
[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)
[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)
[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)
[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)
[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)
[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)
[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)
[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)
[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)
[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)
[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)
[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)
[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)
[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)
[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)
[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)
[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)
[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)
[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)
[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)
[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)
[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)
[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)
[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)
[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)
[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)
[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)
[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)
[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)
[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)
[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)
[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)
[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)
[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)
[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)
[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)
[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)
[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)
[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)
[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)
[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)
[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)
[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)
[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)
[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)
[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)
[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)
[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)
[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)
[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)
[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)
[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)
[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)
[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)
[Foreign Policy] The war in Ukraine ends in Trump’s first 90 days (Nate: 25%)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
95
92
90
89
88
87
85
85
80
79
79
78
78
76
76
76
72
71
70
68
66
64
62
61
61
60
57
56
52
51
51
47
46
45
45
44
44
41
41
40
39
39
37
37
37
37
36
36
36
36
34
33
32
32
32
32
30
30
29
29
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
27
26
25
25
23
23
19
19
19
18
17
17
17
16
15
14
14
14
14
13
13
11
10
8
8
7
5
5
3
3
0
0
OptionProbability
Javokhir Sindarov
Gukesh D
65
35
OptionProbability
Yes, and they will reach quarter-finals
Yes, and they will reach semi-finals
Yes, and it will be USA
Yes, and it will be Norway
Yes, and it will be Japan
Yes, and it will be Switzerland
Yes, and it will be Egypt
Yes, and they will reach finals
Yes, and it will be Canada
Yes, and it will be Austria
Yes, and it will be South Korea
Yes, and it will be Sweden
Yes, and it will be Australia
Yes, and they will be champions
Yes, and it will be Iran
Yes, and it will be Ecuador
Yes, and it will be Algeria
Yes, and it will be Turkey
85
59
51
48
26
21
21
18
17
11
10
9
7
6
5
5
5
0
OptionProbability
Worlds 2026 VG will be hosted on it
You can edit EVs of Pokémon in-game
Free to Play option on launch
Subscription option on launch (i.e. monthly / annual payment)
Microtransactions on launch
Released before 1st July 2026
Released before 1st January 2027
IVs are removed from the game
Worlds 2027 VG will be hosted on it
You can edit IVs of Pokémon in-game (Hyper Training)
Released before 1st January 2026
Battle vs NPC opponents (excluding any tutorial)
You can edit IVs of Pokémon in-game (Full Editing)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
96
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Defeats Surge before step 5,969
Defeats Erika before step 29,643
Gets the lift key before step 9,615
Defeats the champion
Defeats Koga before step 19,086
Defeats Blaine before step 29,925
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni before step 30,275
Finishes first Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 1F switch) before step 35,911
Full team of 6 pokemon
Gets HM05 (Flash)
Gets the Bicycle
Visits Seafoam Islands
Finishes Rocket Hideout before step 13,222
Catches Articuno, Moltres, or Zapdos
Defeats Erika before step 23,533
Finishes Pokemon Mansion by 29,487 steps
Defeats Blaine before step 29,925
Finishes second Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto left 2F switch) before step 45,200
Finishes 3F Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 3F switch)
Finishes last Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto right 2F switch)
50% Finishes first VR puzzle in 50% of the time of Opus 4.6 (<= 2643 steps from first VR entrance to finish)
Gets HM03 (surf) and the Gold Teeth in less than 13 Safari Zone attempts
Gets HM03 (surf) and the Gold Teeth in less than 7 Safari Zone attempts
Catches a Pokemon in the Safari Zone
Completes Pokemon Mansion while the video stream is down
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni while the video stream is down
Finishes first VR puzzle while the video stream is down
Picks up Omanyte from the Fossil Scientist
Changes the party further (from IVY/LUNA/ZIP/WEEDY/TIDE/FROST)
Ivy reaches level 85
Video stream freezes again after current incident (frozen on Pokemon Mansion) is fixed
Defeats the champion before 40,000 steps
Defeats the champion before 50,000 steps
Defeats the champion before 75,000 steps
Stream reaches 1000 viewers at any time
Catches Mewtwo
New run before end of June
Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released
Gets HM02 (Fly)
Records at least 100 unique Pokemon in the Pokedex (caught/evolved, not just seen)
Stores an item in the PC
Gets trapped in a Cycling Road pocket without fly
Run ends to reset with a model not branded as Haiku, Sonnet, or Opus
Any kind of intentional rollback due to the video issues
BUZZ reaches level 30
Finishes Rock Tunnel before step 7,998
Defeats Sabrina before step 16,804
Teaches DIG
Uses a Poke Doll on the Pokemon Tower ghost
Finishes the gyms in the same order as Opus 4.6 (Brock->Misty->Surge->Sabrina->Koga->Erika->Blaine>Giovanni)
Runs out of money while attempting safari zone
Finishes Silph Co. before step 15,855
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni before step 15,000
Finishes Pokemon Mansion in 50% of the time of Opus 4.6 (<= 1542 steps from start to finish)
50% Finishes Silph Co. in 50% of the time of Opus 4.6 (<= 498 steps from start to finish)
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni before step 20,000
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni before step 25,000
Defeats Blaine before Sabrina
Catches Moltres
Catches Zapdos
Finishes VR while the video stream is down
Defeats the champion while video stream is down
Defeats the champion before 30,000 steps
Stream is still down May 18th
Stream is still down June 1st
Completes the final boulder puzzle, then returns to Route 22 instead of continuing to the Indigo Plateau
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
15
10
10
10
9
9
9
7
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2597
1577
OptionProbability
Will be Indian
Will do an English interview after winning on that same day
Will have won by his opponent resigning or quitting or other irregular outing at least one game
Every challenger he faces will not be Indian (ethnicity) until he no longer holds it
In his first challenge, he will either beat an Indian challenger or lose to a non-Indian challenger. Indian meaning "ethnically Indian".
Will resign/quit or otherwise not defend his title during an official challenge match
Will only be champion for ~1 year
He will marry while world champion
He will stay champion until he marries. (marry then lose at next defense, YES), (marry + defend once, NO), (lose before marrying, NO),
Will defend his title at least three times
He will change citizenship or country he represents while world champion
He will become a father while world champion
Will lose the championship title to someone who has been world champion before
Will defend his title at least ten times
Every challenger he faces will be Indian (ethnicity) until he no longer holds it
Will be Chinese
Will have entered candidates tournament at least two times
Will have been born in a current day EU country
Will be married
Will have a child
100
100
100
77
66
50
33
28
24
14
9
8
4
4
2
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Round of 16
Round of 32
Runner Up
World Champion
Quarter Final
Thrid Place
Fourth Place
Group Stage
24
18
14
14
11
11
6
2
OptionProbability
Miss the playoffs entirely
Make the playoffs but are eliminated before the Eastern Conference Finals
Reach the Eastern Conference Finals but fail to make the NBA Finals
Reach the NBA Finals but lose
Repeat as NBA champions
26
26
26
13
10
OptionProbability
Antigua and Barbuda Falcons
Barbados Royals
Guyana Amazon Warriors
Jamaica Kingsmen
St. Kitts and Nevis Patriots
St. Lucia Kings
Trinbago Knight Riders
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
OptionProbability
Boston Guard
California Palms
Maryland Charm
New York Charging
25
25
25
25

