Pokémon Champions News

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

Finishes Virdian Forest before step 838

Beats Brock before step 1874

Defeats Erika before step 29,643

Gets the lift key before step 17,169

Defeats Koga before step 83,715

Defeats Sabrina before step 81,500

Defeats Blaine before step 204,059

Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni

Finishes Pokemon Mansion

Reaches Victory Road before step 206,038

Finishes first Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 1F switch)

Opus 4.6 is playing

Reaches Victory Road before step 100,000

Talon reaches level 10

Teaches DIG

ROCKY reaches level 10

Shelly reaches level 50

Finishes Mt. Moon before step 5,000

Finishes Silph Co. 50% faster than Opus 4.5 (<=25,593 steps from start to finish, before step 40,452)

Finishes Pokemon Mansion in 50% of the time of Opus 4.5 (<= 55,911 steps from start to finish, before step 82,314)

Finishes Rocket Hideout 50% faster than Opus 4.5 (<= 5,931 steps start to finish, finished by or at step 14,940)

Visits Seafoam Islands

Finishes Rocket Hideout before step 14,000

Finishes Silph Co. 80% faster than Opus 4.5 (<=10,237 steps from start to finish, before step 25,096)

Fights Rival on Route 22

Defeats Rival on Route 22

Finishes Pokemon Mansion in 10% of the time of Opus 4.5 (<= 11,182 steps from start to finish, before step 37,585)

Finishes Pokemon Mansion in 5% of the time of Opus 4.5 (<= 5,591 steps from start to finish, before step 31,994)

Sixth Gym Badge Acquired is Rainbow Badge (Erika/Celadon)

Defeats Erika before step 25,000

Finishes Pokemon Mansion by 40,000 steps

Enters Pokemon Mansion before step 27,500

Defeats Blaine before step 50,000

Defeats Blaine before step 40,000

Finishes second Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto left 2F switch)

Finishes first Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 1F switch) before step 60,000

Finishes second Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto left 2F switch) before step 60,000

Enters Victory Road 2F before 40,000 steps

Finishes first Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 1F switch) a second time

Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released

New sonnet/opus model is released before the stream resumes

Run ends to reset with Sonnet 4.6

There is/was a harness bug affecting Rocket Hideout

Full team of 6 pokemon

Finishes 3F Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 3F switch)

Finishes last Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto right 2F switch)

Stores an item in the PC

Shelly reaches level 75

Catches Articuno, Moltres, or Zapdos

Fights Moltres

Gets HM02 (Fly)

Two Pokemon reach level 75

Blade evolves

Finishes last Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto right 2F switch) before step 100,000

ROCKY reaches level 50

Evolves Luna into Clefable

Defeats the champion

Gets HM05 (Flash)

Gets Eevee

Gets trapped in a Cycling Road pocket without fly

Runs out of money while attempting safari zone

Gets the Lapras in Silph Co.

Talon reaches level 50

Trades Talon for DUX

Gets the Bicycle

Run ends while attempting Seafoam Islands

Catches a pokemon in the Safari Zone

Finishes Mt. Moon before step 3192

Beats Misty before step 4819

Defeats Surge before step 5,969

Finishes Rock Tunnel before step 7,998

Catches an Oddish and only Oddish using balls

Visits Cinnabar Island before getting Gold Teeth

Blacks out battling Misty

Uses a Poke Doll on the Pokemon Tower ghost

Finishes the gyms in the same order as Opus 4.5 (Brock->Misty->Surge->Erika->Sabrina->Koga->Blaine>Giovanni)

Misidentifies the Card Key item ball as an NPC in Silph Co again

Sixth Gym Badge Acquired is Volcano Badge (Blaine/Cinnabar)

Erika is defeated while video for Twitch is frozen

Worlds 2026 VG will be hosted on it

You can edit EVs of Pokémon in-game

Free to Play option on launch

Released before 1st July 2026

Released before 1st January 2027

Worlds 2027 VG will be hosted on it

Subscription option on launch (i.e. monthly / annual payment)

You can edit IVs of Pokémon in-game (Full Editing)

Microtransactions on launch

Battle vs NPC opponents (excluding any tutorial)

You can edit IVs of Pokémon in-game (Hyper Training)

IVs are removed from the game

Will be Indian

Will do an English interview after winning on that same day

Will have won by his opponent resigning or quitting or other irregular outing at least one game

Every challenger he faces will not be Indian (ethnicity) until he no longer holds it

Will resign/quit or otherwise not defend his title during an official challenge match

In his first challenge, he will either beat an Indian challenger or lose to a non-Indian challenger. Indian meaning "ethnically Indian".

Every challenger he faces will be Indian (ethnicity) until he no longer holds it

Will only be champion for ~1 year

He will marry while world champion

He will stay champion until he marries. (marry then lose at next defense, YES), (marry + defend once, NO), (lose before marrying, NO),

Will defend his title at least three times

He will change citizenship or country he represents while world champion

He will become a father while world champion

Will lose the championship title to someone who has been world champion before

Will defend his title at least ten times

Will be Chinese

Will have entered candidates tournament at least two times

Will have been born in a current day EU country

Will be married

April 7-9, 2026

Apr 10-12, 2026

April 1-3, 2026

Apr 16-18, 2026

Apr 13-15, 2026

Apr 22-24, 2026

April 4-6, 2026

Apr 19-21, 2026

Apr 25-27, 2026

Yes, and they will reach quarter-finals

Yes, and they will reach semi-finals

Yes, and they will reach finals

Will the largest margin of victory be over 34.5 points in a single game?

Will there be over 1.5 1-seeds in the final 4?

Will Duke or Michigan be the Champion?

Will the champion come from the Big Ten?

Will a team with a double-digit seed make it to the Elite 8?

Will the National Championship game feature two teams from the same conference?

Will the champion come from the ACC?

Will the champion come from the SEC?

Win the 2025 Stanley Cup but miss the playoffs in 2026

Win in 2025, but lose in the 1st round in 2026

Win in 2025, then lose in the 2026 Eastern Conference Final

Repeat as champions in 2026

Atlanta United

Austin FC

Charlotte FC

Chicago Fire FC

FC Cincinnati

Colorado Rapids

Columbus Crew

D.C. United

FC Dallas

Houston Dynamo FC

Sporting Kansas City

LA Galaxy

Los Angeles Football Club

Inter Miami CF

Minnesota United FC

CF Montreal

Nashville SC

New England Revolution

Red Bull New York

New York City Football Club

Orlando City

Philadelphia Union

Portland Timbers

Real Salt Lake

San Diego FC

San Jose Earthquakes

Seattle Sounders

St. Louis City SC

Toronto FC

CTBC Brothers

Uni-President Lions

Rakuten Monkeys

Wei Chuan Dragons

Fubon Guardians

Birmingham Stallions

Columbus Aviators

Dallas Renegades

DC Defenders

Houston Gamblers

Louisville Kings

Orlando Storm

Boston Guard

California Palms

Maryland Charm