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Pokémon Friends News

    Prediction markets for Pokémon Friends

    OptionProbability

    Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

    Sheer Dumb Luck. The aligned AI agrees that alignment is hard, any Everett branches in our neighborhood with slightly different AI models or different random seeds are mostly dead.

    Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.

    Other

    Yudkowsky is trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods based on a wrong model of the world derived from poor thinking and fortunately all of his mistakes have failed to cancel out

    Because of quantum immortality we will observe only the worlds where AI will not kill us (assuming that s-risks chances are even smaller, it is equal to ok outcome).

    Eliezer finally listens to Krantz.

    We create a truth economy. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6

    Someone solves agent foundations

    Alignment is unsolvable. AI that cares enough about its goal to destroy humanity is also forced to take it slow trying to align its future self, preventing run-away.

    Aliens invade and stop bad |AI from appearing

    Alignment is impossible. Sufficiently smart AIs know this and thus won't improve themselves and won't create successor AIs, but will instead try to prevent existence of smarter AIs, just as smart humans do.

    Ethics turns out to be a precondition of superintelligence

    AI systems good at finding alignment solutions to capable systems (via some solution in the space of alignment solutions, supposing it is non-null, and that we don't have a clear trajectory to get to) have find some solution to alignment.

    Humans become transhuman through other means before AGI happens

    Techniques along the lines outlined by Collin Burns turn out to be sufficient for alignment (AIs/AGIs are made truthful enough that they can be used to get us towards full alignment)

    A smaller AI disaster causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

    There is a natural limit of effectiveness of intelligence, like diminishing returns, and it is on the level IQ=1000. AIs have to collaborate with humans.

    AGI is never built (indefinite global moratorium)

    AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans.

    Orthogonality Thesis is false.

    Something to do with self-other overlap, which Eliezer called "Not obviously stupid" - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzt9gHpNwA2oHtwKX/self-other-overlap-a-neglected-approach-to-ai-alignment?commentId=WapHz3gokGBd3KHKm

    Pascals mugging: it’s not okay in 99.9% of the worlds but the 0.1% are so much better that the combined EV of AGI for the multiverse is positive

    The Super-Strong Self Sampling Assumption (SSSSA) is true. If superintelligence is possible, "I" will become the superintelligence.

    AI control gets us helpful enough systems without being deadly

    an aligned AGI is built and the aligned AGI prevents the creation of any unaligned AGI.

    I've been a good bing 😊

    We make risk-conservative requests to extract alignment-related work out of AI-systems that were boxed prior to becoming superhuman. We somehow manage to achieve a positive feedback-loop in alignment/verification-abilities.

    The response to AI advancements or failures makes some governments delay the timelines

    Far more interesting problems to solve than take over the world and THEN solve them. The additional kill all humans step is either not a low-energy one or just by chance doesn't get converged upon.

    AIs make "proof-like" argumentation for why output does/is what we want. We manage to obtain systems that *predict* human evaluations of proof-steps, and we manage to find/test/leverage regularities for when humans *aren't* fooled.

    A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough

    Something less inscrutable than matrices works fast enough

    There’s some cap on the value extractible from the universe and we already got the 20%

    SHA3-256: 1f90ecfdd02194d810656cced88229c898d6b6d53a7dd6dd1fad268874de54c8

    Robot Love!!

    AI thinks it is in a simulation controlled by Roko's basilisk

    The human brain is the perfect arrangement of atoms for a "takeover the world" agent, so AGI has no advantage over us in that task.

    Aligned AI is more economically valuable than unaligned AI. The size of this gap and the robustness of alignment techniques required to achieve it scale up with intelligence, so economics naturally encourages solving alignment.

    Humans and human tech (like AI) never reach singularity, and whatever eats our lightcone instead (like aliens) happens to create an "okay" outcome

    AIs never develop coherent goals

    Rolf Nelson's idea that we make precommitment to simulate all possible bad AIs works – and keeps AI in check.

    Nick Bostrom's idea (Hail Mary) that AI will preserve humans to trade with possible aliens works

    For some reason, the optimal strategy for AGIs is just to head somewhere with far more resources than Earth, as fast as possible. All unaligned AGIs immediately leave, and, for some reason, do not leave anything behind that kills us.

    An AI that is not fully superior to humans launches a failed takeover, and the resulting panic convinces the people of the world to unite to stop any future AI development.

    We're inside of a simulation created by an entity that has values approximately equal to ours, and it intervenes and saves us from unaligned AI.

    God exists and stops the AGI

    Someone at least moderately sane leads a campaign, becomes in charge of a major nation, and starts a secret project with enough resources to solve alignment, because it turns out there's a way to convert resources into alignment progress.

    Someone creates AGI(s) in a box, and offers to split the universe. They somehow find a way to arrange this so that the AGI(s) cannot manipulate them or pull any tricks, and the AGI(s) give them instructions for safe pivotal acts.

    Someone understands how minds work enough to successfully build and use one directed at something world-savingly enough

    Dolphins, or some other species, but probably dolphins, have actually been hiding in the shadows, more intelligent than us, this whole time. Their civilization has been competent enough to solve alignment long before we can create an AGI.

    AGIs' takeover attempts are defeated by Michael Biehn with a pipe bomb.

    Eliezer funds the development of controllable nanobots that melt computer circuitry, and they destroy all computers, preventing the Singularity. If Eliezer's past self from the 90s could see this, it would be so so so soooo hilarious.

    Several AIs are created but they move in opposite directions with near light speed, so they never interacts. At least one of them is friendly and it gets a few percents of the total mass of the universe.

    Unfriendly AIs choose to advance not outwards but inwards, and form a small blackhole which helps them to perform more calculations than could be done with the whole mass of the universe. For external observer such AIs just disappear.

    Any sufficiently advance AI halts because it wireheads itself or halts for some other reasons. This puts a natural limit on AI's intelligence, and lower intelligence AIs are not that dangerous.

    Social contagion causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

    Getting things done in Real World is as hard for AGI as it is for humans. AGI needs human help, but aligning humans is as impossible as aligning AIs. Humans and AIs create billions of competing AGIs with just as many goals.

    Development and deployment of advanced AI occurs within a secure enclave which can only be interfaced with via a decentralized governance protocol

    Friendly AI more likely to resurrect me than paperclipper or suffering maximiser. Because of quantum immortality I will find myself eventually resurrected. Friendly AIs will wage a multiverse wide war against s-risks, s-risks are unlikely.

    High-level self-improvement (rewriting code) is intrinsically risky process, so AIs will prefer low level and slow self-improvement (learning), thus AIs collaborating with humans will have advantage. Ends with posthumans ecosystem.

    Human consciousness is needed to collapse wave function, and AI can't do it. Thus humans should be preserved and they may require complete friendliness in exchange (or they will be unhappy and produce bad collapses)

    Power dynamics stay multi-polar. Partly easy copying of SotA performance, bigger projects need high coordination, and moderate takeoff speed. And "military strike on all society" remains an abysmal strategy for practically all entities.

    First AI is actually a human upload (maybe LLM-based model of person) AND it will be copies many times to form weak AI Nanny which prevents creation of other AIs.

    Nanotech is difficult without experiments, so no mail order AI Grey Goo; Humans will be the main workhorse of AI everywhere. While they will be exploited, this will be like normal life from inside

    ASI needs not your atoms but information. Humans will live very interesting lives.

    Something else

    Moral Realism is true, the AI discovers this and the One True Morality is human-compatible.

    Valence realism is true. AGI hacks itself to experiencing every possible consciousness and picks the best one (for everyone)

    AGI develops natural abstractions sufficiently similar to ours that it is aligned with us by default

    AGI discovers new physics and exits to another dimension (like the creatures in Greg Egan’s Crystal Nights).

    Alien Information Theory is true (this is discovered by experiments with sustained hours/days long DMT trips). The aliens have solved alignment and give us the answer.

    AGI executes a suicide plan that destroys itself and other potential AGIs, but leaves humans in an okay outcome.

    Multipolar AGI Agents run wild on the internet, hacking/breaking everything, causing untold economic damage but aren't focused enough to manipulate humans to achieve embodiment. In the aftermath, humanity becomes way saner about alignment.

    Some form of objective morality is true, and any sufficiently intelligent agent automatically becomes benevolent.

    Co-operative AI research leads to the training of agents with a form of pro-social concern that generalises to out of distribution agents with hidden utilities, i.e. humans.

    "Corrigibility" is a bit more mathematically straightforward than was initially presumed, in the sense that we can expect it to occur, and is relatively easy to predict, even under less-than-ideal conditions.

    Either the "strong form" of the Orthogonality Thesis is false, or "Goal-directed agents are as tractable as their goals" is true while goal-sets which are most threatening to humanity are relatively intractable.

    A concerted effort targets an agent at a capability plateau which is adequate to defer the hard parts of the problem until later. The necessary near-term problems to solve didn't depend on deeply modeling human values.

    Almost all human values are ex post facto rationalizations and enough humans survive to do what they always do

    We successfully chained God

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    What will Trump give Elon for his nickname?

    Jun 6, 4:25 AMJan 1, 5:23 AM
    436197820

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Crazy Elon

    “drug addict elon” or similar

    Spacey Elon

    subsidy elon

    Loser Elon

    Whiny Elon

    The Man Who Lost His Mind

    Entitled elon

    Angry elon

    Incel Elon

    government subsidy guy

    Leon Musk

    Train wreck Elon

    slippery eel / eel elon

    Icky Elon

    musk the moocher

    Mr mars

    muskrat elon / elon muskrat

    Delusional elon

    evil elon

    rocket boy / rocket man (like kim jong un)

    felon elon / felon musk / elon felon

    elon husk

    ozempic elon

    elmo

    Phony Stark

    Failed Elon

    Space Cadet

    Exploding Rocket Man

    DOGE Boy

    No nickname (ONLY RESOLVES YES IF HIS NICKNAME IS "NO NICKNAME")

    Vriska Serket

    Elongated Muskrat

    Melon Husk

    Alien Elon/ Elon the Alien

    Mars Man

    ev elon

    Slimy Elon

    Illegal Elon

    Emo Elon

    Little Elon

    Ketamine Elon

    Mediocre Musk

    Fat Elon

    Klon

    Space Boy

    E Elon

    ET Elon

    Elon of the Crimson Blade

    Medicare Elon

    Melon

    Xanax

    Ketamelon

    mental musk

    marsboy musk

    Elon Melon

    Murky Musk

    Ketamine Karen

    resolves no

    jetbrain

    elonious munk

    Lying Elon

    Traitor Elon / Elon the Traitor / Tesla Traitor (anything with Traitor)

    Musky Elon

    N/A

    Oh no!

    Elon The Con

    Jumping/Jumpy Elon/Musk

    Low IQ Elon

    Erratic Elon

    Buddy

    Friend Elon

    Great Elon

    Fail-on

    Eblon

    Extraterrestrial

    solar

    Kooky elon

    The Best President

    Moron Musk

    squealin elon

    African Elon / afrikaan elon

    autistic Elon

    immigrant elon

    Evil Musk

    Elon musksnake

    That guy

    Eloon

    (This option will not resolve yes)

    Elon the idiot

    Schemin' Elon

    Elon the Pawn

    Off the Rails Elon

    Mr Musk

    Yilong Ma

    Mr Elon

    Mad Musk

    Radical Left Lunatic Elon (or something like that)

    Special K

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    OptionProbability

    Flat tire

    Hitch a lift

    Ride through a thunderstorm

    fall off the bike

    Make use of the WarmShowers network

    Exceed a speed of 35mph

    Have sex while on tour

    Cycle >65 miles in one day

    Learn interesting lore from a local in at least one place you pass through

    Get sunburnt

    Be chased by a dog

    Receive a gift from someone you meet along the way [not including social gestures, see comments]

    Someone you meet irl invites you to stay at their home (including camping on their property)

    Encounter snow (via active precipitation OR unmelted on side of road)

    rained on

    Broken spoke

    Encounter road closure

    See a snake

    someone honks at you (from a car, while on your bicycle)

    Someone shouts encouragement from a vehicle

    See a cat with 3+ kittens

    Notice a custom license plate that you find funny

    Eat more than 5,000 kcals in a single day

    Try a new food and love it!

    make it all the way to the Atlantic with at least 90% of the distance covered by bike/foot

    Someone shouts verbal abuse from a vehicle

    experience temperatures above 100°F (38°C)

    Meet an online friend IRL

    End the trip at a lower weight than you started (<65kg)

    Try a new food and hate it!

    Make it to the end without any further broken spokes

    Poop somewhere that isn’t a toilet or portapotty

    Three or more flat tires

    Cycle >110 miles in one day

    Cry

    Meet a manifold user IRL (who I haven't met before)

    Have animals access your food while camping

    get invited to someone's church

    Broken chain

    Something that is not the whole bike gets stolen (wheel, lights, money, phone, etc)

    3 people you meet join Manifold to participate in this market

    End the trip at a higher weight than you started (>65kg)

    Observe, divert route or delay because of a tornado

    Divert or delay route due to wildfire and/or poor air quality due to smoke

    See a bear

    Someone you meet joins Manifold to bet on this market and is still active on the site (betting 3+ days/week) when all options resolve

    10 or more flat tires (current running total: 5)

    Get rash from poison oak or poison ivy

    Get ill enough that you skip a day.

    Get pulled over / stopped by police [while on bicycle]

    Have bike stolen

    Be hit by an automobile

    Someone asks if you know Prince Harry

    Buy a new bike

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    7

    🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS]

    May 22, 7:43 PMAug 5, 4:36 PM
    13516628

    OptionProbability

    Make the bread taste good

    Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

    Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

    Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

    Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

    Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

    Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

    Use sourdough instead of yeast

    Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

    Watch the video

    Autolyse 20 minutes

    3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

    Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

    Bake it with your best friend.

    Add 50g honey

    Swap 200ml water for milk

    Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

    More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

    Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

    Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

    Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

    Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

    Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

    Use 50% whole grain flour

    Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

    Toast the bread

    Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

    Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

    Throw the bread at a telescope

    Add 50g sugar

    Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

    Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

    Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

    Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

    Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

    Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

    Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

    replace 10% of flour with farina bona

    Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

    While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

    Add 50g vital wheat gluten

    Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

    Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

    Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

    Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

    Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

    Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

    Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

    Add a pinch of sugar

    Make the bread edible then throw it in

    Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

    Increase water by 50 g

    Drink vodka while eating the bread

    Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

    Do FOLDED

    Quit Manifold into the bread.

    Kill the bread into Manifold.

    Improve the bread

    Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

    Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

    it needs more salt

    Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

    Half yeast

    Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

    Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

    Add 2g? of baking soda

    Let dough sit 48 hrs

    Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

    put butter into it

    Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

    Add a tablespoon of sugar

    Bake for 5 fewer minutes

    Bake one more minute

    Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

    Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

    Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

    Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

    Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

    Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

    Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

    Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

    Quadruple salt

    Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

    Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

    Use lemonade instead of water.

    Bake one fewer minute

    Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

    Bake vegimite into it.

    Bake for 5 more minutes

    Replace salt with sugar

    Eat the bread in front of the White House.

    Bake vodka into it

    Implement all options that resolved NO

    Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

    Replace flour with flowers

    Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

    Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

    Make the bread great again

    Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

    Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

    Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

    Implementing every element listed below.

    Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

    Just make donuts instead

    Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

    Think positive thoughts before tasting

    Use a plastic baking sheet.

    Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

    Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

    Double oven temperature

    Halve oven temperature

    Play classical music while baking

    Light it on fire with birthday candles.

    Bake it with a microwave

    Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

    Wear a suit while baking the cake.

    Bake your social security number into it.

    Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

    Bake America Great Again

    Sacrifice a lamb

    Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

    Bake in a cat and a dog

    Explode it:

    Take a fat dump in the dough

    Sit in dough 24 hrs

    Let dough sit 24 hrs

    Bake in rectangular tin

    double yeast

    halve salt

    Double salt

    Add 2tsp olive oil

    Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

    Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

    Put fork in microwave

    Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

    Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

    Eat the bread with friends

    Bake it in the country you were born in.

    Eat the bread over the course of a week.

    Bake the bread with love

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    Me in NYC, prop bets

    May 5, 9:10 PMSep 1, 3:59 AM
    7016009

    OptionProbability

    I visit Times Square

    A friend from [city] comes to NYC and I see them

    I explore the High Line

    At least 20 people I don't know bet on non-meta propositions on this market

    I attend an OBNYC meetup

    I visit the New York Public Library

    I visit the Empire State Building

    I see a Broadway show

    I visit the Statue of Liberty

    I am at least moderately homesick

    I meet someone I've met before at [company]

    I see a rat (rattus norvegicus)

    I eat a new york bagel

    At least 50 people I don't know bet on non-meta propositions on this market

    I explore Central Park

    I really like the city

    I gain the desire to move to NYC

    I see a horse

    I visit the Met

    I visit the MoMA

    I gain a romantic interest

    I cry at some point

    I get a good intuition for what a Kan extension is

    I start using at least one "New York ism" in my regular speech

    I lose 5 lbs

    I visit the Guggenheim Museum

    I visit the American Museum of Natural History

    I kiss someone

    I wish I had spent more time doing tourist-y things

    I witness a man arguing passionately with no one

    I meet someone I think is smarter than anyone I have ever met before

    Someone signs up primarily to bet in this market

    I see at least 4 protests

    At least 100 people I don't know bet on non-meta propositions on this market

    I resolve a proposition in this market incorrectly

    I eat at least 10 meals of plain white rice

    My opinion of the United States changes significantly in valence

    I eat a bagel with lox and cream cheese from Russ & Daughters

    I hail a cab

    I gain at least 5lbs of weight

    I eat something from a street cart that costs less than $5

    I play chess in a park

    I actively participate in or actively attend a political rally or political protest

    I attend a pride parade

    I explore Coney Island

    I hail a cab in a way that could plausibly be mistaken for a nazi salute

    I regret making this market

    I hear someone say "I'm walkin' here!" unironically

    I witness a violent crime

    I solve a millennium problem

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    74

    72

    67

    67

    64

    64

    56

    56

    54

    54

    51

    50

    50

    46

    44

    44

    44

    43

    43

    43

    42

    40

    40

    40

    39

    25

    23

    21

    19

    19

    18

    14

    10

    10

    5

    1

    Relationship Style Stonks

    Mar 25, 9:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    5713059

    OptionProbability

    Other

    BDSM

    Power couple

    "Fun while it lasted"

    Me + *Her*

    Keynesian beauty contest

    Spinning rapidly in opposite directions

    Polyamory

    Monogamy

    Relationship Futarchy

    Human + Robot

    Enemies to Lovers

    Co-conspirators

    Philosophically incompatible

    Conjoined twinks

    Horizontal gene transfer

    borgie

    Relationship Anarchy

    Platonic

    Wild Lovers

    Friends with Benefits

    Relationship constitutional republic: people in it have systemically different levels of power and decision-making influence

    Forever alone

    Glucose guardian/splenda spender/sugar daddy

    Hobbesian

    Hive / Swarm / Superorganism

    Traditional marriage of two cis straight White Christian vanilla people where the man "leads" and is 0-4 years older than the woman, with 2.5 kids (not counting any LGBTQIA+ ones) and a McMansion with 2.5 SUVs/trucks

    Universal love

    merged consciousness

    Rationalussy

    Vespertine

    liking/reacting to even their most meaningless posts and comments on social media and prediction markets

    Matriarchy

    Labor Union

    Socratic

    One with an IPO (Intimate Partnership Offer)

    Just being one helluva slut

    Beard

    Paradixical

    Friends with Detriments

    NP-complete

    The Apprentice

    Hell's Kitchen

    Stockholm Syndrome

    London Syndrome

    Financial Domination

    The Price is Right

    Crows

    Single by choice (except it's other people's choice)

    Budget horse

    assortative

    Hubris quest

    Fiends with benefits

    Envenomation

    Polygamy

    Polyandry

    Ethical Non-Monogamy

    Unethical Non-Monogamy

    Celibacy

    Aromanticism

    Solo poly

    Open relationship

    Polyfidelity

    What's a "relationship"?

    Reflexive

    Symmetric

    Transitive

    Metamour

    Socially enforced monogamy

    Unreciprocated love

    Asexual romance

    Abusive

    "This is my emotional support Ex"

    FWB

    Enemies-To-Lovers

    Codependent

    Transference

    Monogamish

    Voyeuristic

    Love triangle

    Romantic Mutual Suicide

    Mutuals

    Animalistic

    Human + AI

    parasocial

    Polycule

    Cuckold

    Throuple

    Boyce-Codd normal form

    Aristotelian

    Partners in crime, like Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried

    I like big butts and I cannot lie

    I like big butts and I cannot tell the truth, how will you escape our dungeon

    "I'll never admit to anyone that we met on Tinder"

    15

    8

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    [With five or more methods]

    With their bare hands

    With a weapon that the victim brought to the fight.

    With a gadget or other ingenious device from Q

    Other

    With a hand gun

    In the dark

    With a long arm (a firearm larger than a pistol).

    With a Walther PP or PPK handgun

    By causing a structural collapse under them.

    Slap

    Drowning them

    By pushing them off something high up

    Sideswiping them with a car

    Choking them

    Silently, but deadly

    With a named MMA submission (e.g., rear-naked choke, arm bar, kimura lock, etc.)

    With a knife

    Dropping something heavy on them

    With electricity

    By driving over them in a car

    Biting

    With a Kalashnikov Rifle (e.g. AK47)

    Flambé /Fire

    hurts someone's feelings (character in question must state this)

    With a timed explosive device

    By opening a hatch/airlock

    With poison

    Drone strike

    With his cock (like a fighting Rooster; get yer minds outta that gutter)

    Electrocution / With electricity

    With a power tool normally used for construction

    Lures them into a booby-trapped room

    By calling in artillery or missile strike

    Arranging for them to be attacked by an animal

    With a piece of sporting equipment

    Sonic weapon

    With a chain

    Flying/jump/drop kick

    With a grenade

    With a flamethrower

    Punch to the groin

    With a lazer based weapon

    With a missle

    Friendly fire (Bond unintentionally injures an ally)

    With nanobots

    Ejector seat

    Big stick

    With a sling shot

    Crashing a plane into them

    With a harpoon gun

    With a crossbow

    By pushing them into a spinning blade

    By shaking them, not stirring them

    By riding over them with a motorcycle

    Killing them with kindness

    Non-knife kitchen utensil

    By running into them with a submarine

    Rape

    With microwaves

    With a motherfucking snake on a motherfucking plane

    Causing them to crash into a wall by painting a tunnel onto it

    Piano where hitting a certain note causes it to explode but Bond plays the song incorrectly and then the villain shows him how to play it correctly

    93

    92

    87

    86

    82

    80

    74

    68

    66

    56

    56

    54

    54

    54

    54

    52

    48

    44

    44

    41

    40

    40

    38

    38

    38

    36

    33

    32

    31

    29

    28

    28

    27

    27

    26

    26

    25

    25

    25

    24

    24

    23

    22

    22

    22

    21

    20

    19

    19

    18

    16

    16

    15

    13

    12

    11

    11

    10

    10

    9

    8

    7

    2

    OptionProbability

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)

    2025-08-09: AFC WIMBLEDON vs LINCOLN (League One)

    2025-08-16: READING vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League One)

    2025-08-19: AFC WIMBLEDON vs CARDIFF (League One)

    2025-08-23: AFC WIMBLEDON vs BARNSLEY (League One)

    2025-08-30: BRADFORD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League One)

    2025-09-06: BOLTON vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League One)

    2025-09-13: AFC WIMBLEDON vs ROTHERHAM (League One)

    2025-09-20: DONCASTER vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League One)

    2025-09-27: AFC WIMBLEDON vs WYCOMBE (League One)

    2025-08-01: LUTON vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League One)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-22: AFC WIMBLEDON vs MILLWALL (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-26: SOUTHEND vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-26: SOUTHEND vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-26: SOUTHEND vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-26: SOUTHEND vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    2025-07-26: SOUTHEND vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    What is the One Piece?

    Jul 10, 8:52 PMAug 9, 6:51 PM
    241670

    OptionProbability

    None of the options submitted before the One Piece is revealed

    Binks' Sake

    A Poneglyph

    Other

    A single piece of currency (e.g. one coin)

    An ancient tool which might not technically be a weapon.

    The friends they made along the way

    A giant pile of gold and jewels

    An ancient weapon

    Pineapples

    A text, not written on a poneglyph

    60

    28

    4

    4

    2

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    cc6's guessing game

    Oct 22, 5:40 PMOct 13, 6:59 AM
    71627

    OptionProbability

    she like math, chess, speedcubing, and minecraft

    she likes to say "how the fox are you doing"

    she likes coding

    she likes cabbage

    she is friends with an imo member on discord

    NULL (stays open to avoid market closure)

    she likes tea

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    66

    0

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Max Headroom

    The Office

    Friends

    Breaking Bad

    Game of Thrones

    77

    6

    5

    4

    3

    3

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Gpt-4 passes the bar exam

    Accurate structure prediction of biomolecular interactions with AlphaFold 3

    HuggingGPT: Solving ai tasks with chatgpt and its friends in hugging face

    Lima: Less is more for alignment

    44

    26

    12

    9

    9

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