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Prediction markets for Polymarket

Polymarket legally accessible to US citizens before December 31, 2025

Nov 22, 4:05 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

88.06%chance

18186480

OptionVotes

NO

YES

27318

4196

Will Elon acquire Polymarket?

Oct 8, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.4%chance

4848975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24861

7027

Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal for US residents in 2025?

Jan 22, 7:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.85%chance

4918584

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17172

3184

Is Polymarket more accurate than Manifold at p<0.05?

Apr 15, 9:42 AMSep 30, 9:39 AM

59.76%chance

14010234

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1219

821

Will Polymarket launch a stablecoin before 2027?

Jul 22, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.65%chance

139215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11135

8981

Will Polymarket IPO before 2028?

Jul 22, 10:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.51%chance

116510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16234

6160

Will Polymarket get investigated by the CFTC again before 2027?

Jul 30, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

39.38%chance

202368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

806

When will Polymarket introduce fees?

Jun 16, 3:36 PMDec 31, 4:33 PM

92086

Will Polymarket reach $100B in trading volume in 2027?

Aug 16, 9:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.83%chance

112022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

883

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

2973

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

Under $2B

N/A

34

18

13

13

11

11

US state/federal regulatory apparatus takes another action against Polymarket before January 1, 2026

Jul 22, 2:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.92%chance

4800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1818

573

Will Manifold be acquired by PolyMarket by end of 2030?

Jan 26, 4:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.91%chance

16598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

262

131

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