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Prediction markets for Preferred Sources
OptionProbability
13
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
25
16
12
12
11
10
7
2
2
1
1
OpenAI memory-using chatbot causes fatal domestic dispute by EOY2026?
Apr 17, 10:49 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
39.09%chance
225804
OptionVotes
1248
801
OptionVotes
1659
691
Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?
Dec 18, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
17.29%chance
263713
OptionVotes
2206
461
When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
Aug 20, 3:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
583509
OptionProbability
44
24
21
8
3
0
Will the GTA VI leaker be publicly identified before GTA VI releases?
Aug 22, 6:26 AMNov 19, 11:59 PM
13.49%chance
252657
OptionVotes
2532
395
Will retrieval-augmented-generation (RAG) still be used in 2026?
Aug 12, 4:11 PMDec 13, 4:59 AM
87.43%chance
241992
OptionVotes
2685
386
Will an ungated, fully driverless robotaxi service be available to the public in São Paulo before July 1, 2028?
Jul 15, 2:17 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM
30.63%chance
4519
OptionVotes
1138
933
OptionVotes
1115
1009
Will Jujutsu Kaisen chapters 223–236 get a theatrical release (movie) by EOY 2029?
Sep 19, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
59.02%chance
1200
OptionVotes
1200
833
Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?
Jul 28, 11:38 PMJan 1, 12:33 AM
48.88%chance
479
OptionVotes
1023
978
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