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Prime Day News

    Prediction markets for Prime Day

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    5639

    4686

    Hipkins+Luxon+Peters all leaders on day of next election?

    Dec 23, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    79.27%chance
    1210412

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    3492

    47

    Will the Epstein letter to Nassar be proven to be real?

    Dec 24, 4:42 AMJan 1, 4:41 AM
    10.25%chance
    189192

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2959

    338

    OptionProbability

    **Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

    **Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

    30

    6

    OptionProbability

    Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or more

    human steps on moon again

    fable (2026) releases

    Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more

    trump dies

    Saw XI Releases in USA

    grok 6 release date

    Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

    biden dies

    stripe ipo happens

    trump is impeached by either house OR senate

    polymarket or kalshi ipo

    windows 12 announcement is made

    Netanyahu out as PM of israel

    Bitcoin reaches 130K usd or more

    Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more

    trump bombs / invades / attacks mexican territory

    Earthquake magnitude 8.5 or higher somewhere in the world

    Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube

    polymarket or kalshi release a credit/debit card

    putin or zelensky lose power

    Chat GPT 6 releases to the general userbase

    israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will

    new super smash bros game announced (NOT A REMAKE)

    yoko ono passes away

    anthropic stock able to be bought on nyse

    noam chomsky passes away

    commercial airline hijacked

    discord IPO happens

    haunted chocolatier release date known

    GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

    Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire

    playstation 6 announced

    EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26

    manifold raises more money

    tropico 7 releases

    twitter/x releases x mail to some users

    openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo

    onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube

    Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)

    Cy Young award winner announced

    Third dune movie officially announced

    beyonce releases an album

    apple announces a smart ring

    Legally Blonde 3 release date announced

    EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27

    nobel peace prize winner announced

    Hades 3 announced (game)

    apple announces a touchscreen laptop

    Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world

    coup in an african country

    EOD Halloween - Oct 31

    fourth Knives Out movie announced

    playboi carti releases an album

    new Doctor Who showrunner announced (after RTD departure)

    Last game of the MLB World Series ends

    llama 5 release date

    iphone fold release date known

    First game of the MLB World Series starts

    Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends

    EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9

    grok 5 release date

    Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year

    someone reaches 100k traders on the creator leaderboard

    Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

    the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

    the first Solar eclipse of the year

    the first Atlantic hurricane of the season

    Patriot Games ending day

    Patriot Games starting day

    the second Pacific hurricane of the season

    the first Pacific hurricane of the season

    fifa world cup - last game ends

    EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4

    Taylor swift gets married

    ozempic/wegovy/glp-1 pill approved by the fda

    English Wikipedia reaches 7.2M ARTICLES or more

    Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year

    marijuana rescheduled as a drug in the USA

    the start of Amazon Prime Day(s)

    Kier Starmer out

    alan greenspan passes away

    Manifest 2026 starts

    spacex IPO happens

    drake releases an album

    EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5

    another trump assassination attempt

    Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year

    Last day of the NFL draft

    undersea cables reported cut around taiwan

    Imu face reveal in One Piece manga

    artemis II mission launches

    EOD Ides of March - Mar 15

    new iphone releases (in the USA)

    trump removes a cabinet member

    First Apple Event of the year

    the first Lunar eclipse of the year

    Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year

    manifold launches real money trading

    EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras

    nioh 3 releases in the usa (game)

    First Nintendo direct of the year

    doomsday clock announcement made

    98

    98

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    88

    87

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    85

    83

    83

    83

    80

    78

    72

    72

    71

    70

    70

    70

    66

    66

    66

    63

    60

    59

    59

    59

    59

    59

    59

    59

    59

    59

    57

    56

    55

    55

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    54

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    52

    51

    50

    50

    50

    48

    46

    46

    46

    44

    43

    43

    38

    37

    36

    36

    35

    35

    34

    33

    31

    30

    29

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    27

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    9

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    6

    5

    4

    3

    2

    1

    On which days will Andy Burnham be UK Prime Minister

    Jun 20, 6:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    172567

    OptionProbability

    1 August 2026

    1 September 2026

    17 November 2026

    1 January 2027

    7 September 2026

    12 December 2026

    16 February 2027

    12 April 2027

    2 June 2027

    18 July 2027

    31 August 2027

    3 November 2027

    6 November 2027

    1 January 2028

    16 February 2028

    1 January 2029

    1 January 2030

    1 January 2031

    2 March 2027

    21 May 2041

    28 March 2040

    28 June 2045

    31 May 2047

    30 June 2044

    31 May 2057

    1 July 2026

    100

    98

    95

    92

    92

    92

    87

    76

    76

    76

    76

    76

    76

    67

    66

    50

    45

    34

    24

    10

    10

    8

    5

    4

    1

    0

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1704

    240

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1679

    610

    Will Andy Burnham lead Labour to the next general election?

    Jun 19, 8:41 PMAug 15, 11:59 PM
    74.47%chance
    8575

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1341

    854

    OptionProbability

    1 March 2026

    1 February 2026

    1 January 2026

    57

    32

    11

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1173

    596

    Andy Burnham's net approval rating after 100 days in office

    Nov 14, 2:57 PMDec 29, 1:27 PM
    44.36%chance
    13309

    OptionProbability

    NO

    YES

    1082

    880

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