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Prediction markets for Pro Max
Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?
Jan 19, 3:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1.5%chance
205275
OptionVotes
2453
28
OptionProbability
39
28
28
4
1
OptionVotes
2565
390
OptionProbability
64
64
50
46
0
0
OptionProbability
18
14
14
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)
Feb 6, 11:09 PMFeb 6, 10:38 PM
7421
OptionProbability
100
82
66
66
46
45
41
28
10
OptionProbability
85
80
69
69
69
57
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
47
Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?
Oct 29, 1:25 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100