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Prediction markets for Prodigy

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.32%chance

86134186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109153

17619

Which chess prodigy will have the highest Elo rating at the end of 2025?

Jan 7, 10:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

293800

OptionProbability

Gukesh D

Praggnanandhaa R

Arjun Erigaisi

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Alireza Firouzja

Wei Yi

Vincent Keymer

Hans Niemann

29

27

18

16

5

4

1

1

Will Faustino Oro become world chess champion by 2040?

Jun 4, 3:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.54%chance

132639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2247

445

Did Kuina die from falling down the stairs?

Jan 10, 3:24 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM

84.09%chance

6149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

230

43

Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa ever become World Chess Champion?

Apr 12, 2:30 PMAug 11, 6:59 AM

25.24%chance

276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

97

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