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Top stories

FX’s ‘Alien: Earth’ Hits 9 Million Viewers, Tops Hulu Charts

FX’s ‘Alien: Earth’ Hits 9 Million Viewers, Tops Hulu Charts

Authors

12

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Prodigy

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.41%chance

198384813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155442

22908

Will Faustino Oro become world chess champion by 2040?

Jun 4, 3:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.11%chance

163729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2127

502

Will Roman Shogdzhiev become the youngest chess Grandmaster ever?

Oct 13, 1:47 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

57.13%chance

112585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

866

Will "Tomas Bjartur: The Last Prodigy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 14, 4:30 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.07%chance

41793

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2215

879

When will Abhimanyu Mishra enter the world's top 10 in the live ratings?

Sep 10, 1:01 PMJan 1, 1:54 PM

41690

OptionProbability

Not top 10 by EOY 2032

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2026 (or 2025)

61

7

7

7

7

5

5

1

Which chess prodigy will have the highest Elo rating at the end of 2026?

Jan 15, 5:41 PMJan 1, 5:36 PM

111298

OptionProbability

Javokhir Sindarov

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Vincent Keymer

Arjun Erigaisi

Praggnanandhaa R

Gukesh D

Alireza Firouzja

Hans Niemann

Nihal Sarin

Awonder Liang

41

17

10

9

5

5

5

2

2

2

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.4%chance

4927

OptionVotes

NO

YES

301

48

Will Kenya get a chess international master within 1year?

Jun 24, 5:23 PMJun 24, 5:22 PM

14.96%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Will I face a foul fate for the folly of foraging forays in 2026?

Jul 23, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.45%chance

11419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

46

Did Kuina die from falling down the stairs?

Jan 10, 3:24 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM

84.09%chance

6149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

230

43

Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa ever become World Chess Champion?

Apr 12, 2:30 PMAug 11, 6:59 AM

28.85%chance

491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

105

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Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
TV
Culture
FX’s ‘Alien: Earth’ Hits 9 Million Viewers, Tops Hulu Charts
Authors
12
1 year ago

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