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Prediction markets for Productivity
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
39.86%chance
615651684
OptionVotes
5682
4007
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
66.99%chance
8957065
OptionVotes
143123
70539
OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
33.7%chance
6122680
OptionVotes
13650
7407
Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
71.75%chance
148373
OptionVotes
23022
10051
Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
46.38%chance
43051
OptionVotes
10753
9300
Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
49.68%chance
42140
OptionVotes
10064
9936
Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
56.73%chance
51566
OptionVotes
11450
8734
Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
47.7%chance
31550
OptionVotes
10471
9550
Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
46.37%chance
41301
OptionVotes
10755
9298
Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
53.39%chance
4810
OptionVotes
10702
9344
Will Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
47.33%chance
3551
OptionVotes
10549
9480
Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
48.84%chance
2275
OptionVotes
10235
9770
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