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Prediction markets for Productivity
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
35.46%chance
630671922
OptionVotes
5352
4554
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
67.33%chance
9558194
OptionVotes
144253
69986
OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
30.97%chance
7023969
OptionVotes
14560
6972
Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
60.53%chance
816710
OptionVotes
12384
8075
Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
76.16%chance
1711452
OptionVotes
25974
9014
Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
46.37%chance
63105
OptionVotes
10755
9298
Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
40.89%chance
43068
OptionVotes
12024
8317
Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
40.13%chance
52353
OptionVotes
12216
8186
Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
49.71%chance
52146
OptionVotes
10058
9942
Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
41.03%chance
42033
OptionVotes
11989
8341
Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
56.79%chance
61580
OptionVotes
11464
8723
Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?
May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
48.84%chance
2275
OptionVotes
10235
9770
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