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Top stories

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

Authors

19

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Proof

Will an AI model write the proof to the Riemann Hypothesis by the end of 2025?

Sep 14, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1%chance

178193532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115702

1609

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

69.06%chance

11691266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2079

646

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.27%chance

10116414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2263

656

Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?

May 2, 1:38 AMMay 2, 4:59 AM

73.88%chance

445819

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1454

750

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

49.05%chance

125331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10411

9587

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM

22.82%chance

111221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

547

If P=NP is proven, will the first proof be constructive?

Aug 23, 3:07 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

29.21%chance

281101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1544

639

Proof of stack market resolution

Dec 13, 7:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.37%chance

18888

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

100

Will we have a proof of the Riemann Hypothesis by 2060?

Nov 26, 10:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.78%chance

24840

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1161

829

Proof-of-work banned in California by 2032-11-02?

Nov 2, 8:13 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

20.22%chance

19644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

933

Will I find proof of a mushroom at least a meter tall?

Oct 21, 2:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.41%chance

14616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

902

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.64%chance

8491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

930

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Fintech
DeFi
Blockchains
Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries
Authors
19
3 months ago

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