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Top stories

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

Authors

19

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Proof

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

75%chance

12094639

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2349

543

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

75.9%chance

10318919

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1813

773

What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1513139

OptionProbability

30-40%

40-50%

20-30%

50-60%

10-20%

60-70%

<10%

70-80%

80-90%

≥90%

20

17

16

12

9

7

6

6

3

2

Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?

May 2, 1:38 AMMay 2, 4:59 AM

69.12%chance

455894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1265

825

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM

22.82%chance

111221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

547

If P=NP is proven, will the first proof be constructive?

Aug 23, 3:07 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

28.28%chance

291131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1636

647

Will we have a proof of the Riemann Hypothesis by 2060?

Nov 26, 10:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.78%chance

24840

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1161

829

Proof-of-work banned in California by 2032-11-02?

Nov 2, 8:13 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

22.52%chance

19759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

964

Will I find proof of a mushroom at least a meter tall?

Oct 21, 2:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.41%chance

14616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

902

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.64%chance

8491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

930

Will "Lies, Damned Lies, and Proofs: Formal Methods..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 22, 11:50 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Latest stories

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Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Fintech
DeFi
Blockchains
Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries
Authors
19
5 months ago

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