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Prediction markets for Proof
Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?
Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
67.34%chance
12498323
OptionVotes
2014
677
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
75.9%chance
10318919
OptionVotes
1813
773
OptionProbability
20
17
16
12
10
7
6
6
3
2
Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?
May 2, 1:38 AMMay 2, 4:59 AM
69.12%chance
455894
OptionVotes
1265
825
Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?
Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
47.84%chance
125581
OptionVotes
10661
9352
Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?
May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM
22.82%chance
111221
OptionVotes
1842
547
If P=NP is proven, will the first proof be constructive?
Aug 23, 3:07 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM
28.28%chance
291131
OptionVotes
1636
647
Will we have a proof of the Riemann Hypothesis by 2060?
Nov 26, 10:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
56.78%chance
24840
OptionVotes
1161
829
OptionVotes
1042
964
Will I find proof of a mushroom at least a meter tall?
Oct 21, 2:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
18.41%chance
14616
OptionVotes
1322
902
Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?
Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
53.64%chance
8491
OptionVotes
1076
930
Will "Lies, Damned Lies, and Proofs: Formal Methods..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jan 22, 11:50 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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