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Prediction markets for Proof
Will an AI model write the proof to the Riemann Hypothesis by the end of 2025?
Sep 14, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
1%chance
178193532
OptionVotes
115702
1609
Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?
Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
69.06%chance
11691266
OptionVotes
2079
646
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
82.27%chance
10116414
OptionVotes
2263
656
Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?
May 2, 1:38 AMMay 2, 4:59 AM
73.88%chance
445819
OptionVotes
1454
750
Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?
Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
49.05%chance
125331
OptionVotes
10411
9587
Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?
May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM
22.82%chance
111221
OptionVotes
1842
547
If P=NP is proven, will the first proof be constructive?
Aug 23, 3:07 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM
29.21%chance
281101
OptionVotes
1544
639
OptionVotes
133
100
Will we have a proof of the Riemann Hypothesis by 2060?
Nov 26, 10:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
56.78%chance
24840
OptionVotes
1161
829
OptionVotes
1157
933
Will I find proof of a mushroom at least a meter tall?
Oct 21, 2:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
18.41%chance
14616
OptionVotes
1322
902
Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?
Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
53.64%chance
8491
OptionVotes
1076
930
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