Pulitzer News

Israeli Airstrike at Al-Shifa Hospital Kills Pulitzer-Winning Al Jazeera Correspondent Anas al-Sharif and Five Journalists, Drawing UN Condemnation

4 months ago

Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

3130050

OptionProbability

Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)

Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)

Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)

Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)

Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)

Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)

Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)

Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)

Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)

The bet will be annulled

Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)

Miles will win the bet

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize related to her coverage on any AI company/lab within the next 10 years?

May 23, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.41%chance

3311183

OptionVotes

YES

8133

1545

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize within the next 10 years?

May 24, 1:01 AMMay 31, 6:59 AM

19.08%chance

365090

OptionVotes

YES

2059

486

When will human literary translators become unnecessary?

Dec 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

10.95%chance

19946

OptionProbability

YES

1347

1024

Will GPT (or another AI) be awarded a Pulitzer Prize by 2028?

Feb 29, 2:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.08%chance

27671

OptionVotes

YES

1459

890

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?

Mar 12, 7:22 AMFeb 2, 1:29 PM

18.88%chance

23632

OptionVotes

YES

207

Will Todd Heisler's photograph of Kamala Harris speaking at the Democratic National Convention win a Pulitzer?

Aug 28, 8:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.6%chance

6515

OptionVotes

YES

613

Will @Bitfinexed win the Pulitzer Prize by 2034?

Mar 20, 12:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.03%chance

6297

OptionVotes

YES

382

Will AI win a Pulitzer by 2030?

Mar 23, 1:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

17.89%chance

14277

OptionVotes

YES

1167

943

Will Walter Duranty's Pulitzer Prize be revoked before 2040?

Mar 12, 4:26 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.26%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

140

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Aug 12, 2025
Aug 12, 2025
Middle East
War
Politics
Israeli Airstrike at Al-Shifa Hospital Kills Pulitzer-Winning Al Jazeera Correspondent Anas al-Sharif and Five Journalists, Drawing UN Condemnation
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4 months ago

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Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize related to her coverage on any AI company/lab within the next 10 years?

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize within the next 10 years?

When will human literary translators become unnecessary?

Will GPT (or another AI) be awarded a Pulitzer Prize by 2028?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?

Will Todd Heisler's photograph of Kamala Harris speaking at the Democratic National Convention win a Pulitzer?

Will @Bitfinexed win the Pulitzer Prize by 2034?

Will AI win a Pulitzer by 2030?

Will Walter Duranty's Pulitzer Prize be revoked before 2040?

Latest stories

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