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Prediction markets for Pulitzer
Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM
3130050
OptionProbability
88
78
71
70
66
65
43
26
25
25
23
14
6
1
Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize related to her coverage on any AI company/lab within the next 10 years?
May 23, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
15.41%chance
3311183
OptionVotes
8133
1545
Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize within the next 10 years?
May 24, 1:01 AMMay 31, 6:59 AM
19.08%chance
365090
OptionVotes
2059
486
When will human literary translators become unnecessary?
Dec 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
10.95%chance
19946
OptionProbability
1347
1024
Will GPT (or another AI) be awarded a Pulitzer Prize by 2028?
Feb 29, 2:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
10.08%chance
27671
OptionVotes
1459
890
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?
Mar 12, 7:22 AMFeb 2, 1:29 PM
18.88%chance
23632
OptionVotes
207
48
Will Todd Heisler's photograph of Kamala Harris speaking at the Democratic National Convention win a Pulitzer?
Aug 28, 8:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
2.6%chance
6515
OptionVotes
613
16
OptionVotes
382
47
OptionVotes
1167
943
Will Walter Duranty's Pulitzer Prize be revoked before 2040?
Mar 12, 4:26 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
49.26%chance
240
OptionVotes
140
140
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