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Prediction markets for Pulitzer
Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM
3531186
OptionProbability
88
83
78
74
72
65
45
28
26
25
23
14
6
1
Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize related to her coverage on any AI company/lab within the next 10 years?
May 23, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
15.38%chance
3411193
OptionVotes
8143
1543
Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize within the next 10 years?
May 24, 1:01 AMMay 31, 6:59 AM
19.08%chance
365090
OptionVotes
2059
486
When will human literary translators become unnecessary?
Dec 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
12.84%chance
211146
OptionProbability
1153
1050
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?
Mar 12, 7:22 AMFeb 2, 1:29 PM
15%chance
24678
OptionVotes
240
42
Will GPT (or another AI) be awarded a Pulitzer Prize by 2028?
Feb 29, 2:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
10.14%chance
28672
OptionVotes
1450
891
OptionVotes
382
47
OptionVotes
1167
943
Will Walter Duranty's Pulitzer Prize be revoked before 2040?
Mar 12, 4:26 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
49.26%chance
240
OptionVotes
140
140
OptionVotes
100
100
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