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Prediction markets for Quality and Performance
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
54%chance
602394096
OptionVotes
16776
7995
Who will create the first AI model to generate a high quality movie before 2028?
Feb 8, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
3510396
OptionProbability
62
17
12
8
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will AI writers replace all jobs for human writers by the end of 2025?
Jan 14, 2:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1.25%chance
339086
OptionVotes
6211
785
[M100 sub] Will there be a well-reviewed video game with LLM-based NPC dialogue by 2026 (no mods)?
Sep 28, 9:56 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM
18%chance
444925
OptionVotes
1959
452
How will presidential historians rank Biden relative to other past presidents?
Jul 7, 5:15 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
231815
OptionProbability
38
32
22
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?
May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
38.95%chance
91300
OptionVotes
3864
3220
Will a robot capable of passing both the Coffee Test and a strong, adversarial Turing test be created before 2100?
Mar 19, 8:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
94.15%chance
171222
OptionVotes
1685
902
When will we be able to chat with an AI convincingly impersonating a famous historical or living person?
Feb 5, 10:08 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM
241138
OptionProbability
58
52
49
33
0
Will I be impressed by someone using RL through self-play to improve model creativity or aesthetics in 2025?
Jan 27, 12:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
45.5%chance
6731
OptionVotes
10255
9775
OptionProbability
50
34
8
4
2
1
1
0
Which presidents will become more highly rated by presidential historians between 2021 and 2025?
Jul 8, 5:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
7200
OptionProbability
79
70
69
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
38
13
Which incumbent Representative or Senator will have the lowest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
Feb 10, 4:07 AMFeb 17, 4:59 AM
3142
OptionProbability
44
26
15
6
5
4
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