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Prediction markets for Relay
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
74.78%chance
9516056
OptionVotes
1722
581
Will China be stripped of at least three swimming medals from the Tokyo Olympics?
Apr 20, 10:16 AMAug 31, 3:59 PM
25.92%chance
181176
OptionVotes
375
125
Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2030?
Nov 13, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
32%chance
13938
OptionVotes
176
169
OptionVotes
1380
724
Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2026?
Jan 1, 6:29 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
3.16%chance
13764
OptionVotes
555
18
OptionVotes
413
24
Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Comcast by the end of 2026?
Jan 1, 6:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
3.12%chance
11660
OptionVotes
557
18
OptionVotes
1314
942
Wearable self-driving car safety dongle with 1m users by end of 2030
Oct 1, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
11.25%chance
9356
OptionVotes
434
125
OptionVotes
292
34
Will "The consequences of locking intelligence away..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jul 1, 7:25 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.86%chance
110
OptionVotes
1010
998
Does an anonymous email relay exist to connect User A and User B with anonymized emails and names similar to craigslist?
Jul 13, 11:22 PMJul 14, 6:59 AM
00
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