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Top stories

US Gov Appointments

Pentagon Innovation Chief Doug Beck Quits; Emil Michael Takes DIU Helm

Authors

11

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Replicator

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

10.25%chance

1828544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29618

3383

Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?)

May 4, 12:55 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

70.46%chance

13911459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2061

646

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

Apr 22, 9:43 PMDec 28, 7:59 AM

67.19%chance

384159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1552

520

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

81.68%chance

242886

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2112

474

(AI virus) When will an AI first replicate onto new hardware against user intent?

Jan 1, 1:59 AMDec 24, 5:01 AM

29.57%chance

242467

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1368

747

Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?

Mar 16, 11:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.64%chance

361361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1132

819

Will the Tadpole Experiment experiment be independently replicated in the next 10 years?

Jul 4, 10:42 PMJul 4, 10:40 PM

22.67%chance

41063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

541

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print ever get replicated?

Mar 4, 10:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.5%chance

19603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

917

Successful replication of 'From e-waste to living space: Flame retardants contaminating household items'?

Dec 11, 2:54 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

36.25%chance

4326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

759

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

Jun 29, 5:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

35.93%chance

19227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

981

Nobel Prize by 2035 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?

Aug 1, 6:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.77%chance

12204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

970

Replication attempt on 'From e-waste to living space: Flame retardants contaminating household items'?

Dec 11, 2:32 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

50.99%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

985

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
US Gov Appointments
Politics
Pentagon Innovation Chief Doug Beck Quits; Emil Michael Takes DIU Helm
Authors
11
1 year ago

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