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Top stories

US Gov Appointments

Pentagon Innovation Chief Doug Beck Quits; Emil Michael Takes DIU Helm

Authors

11

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Replicator

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2026?

Feb 24, 9:01 AMJan 2, 12:40 AM

1.19%chance

4273675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5203

848

Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?)

May 4, 12:55 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

47.41%chance

1349946

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1360

1127

Will an independent replication study confirm that poor sleep can be an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease in flies?

Oct 31, 11:03 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

79.3%chance

264319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1958

511

Will there be an open replication of DeepSeek v3 for <$10m?

Jan 27, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.44%chance

233562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1189

841

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

77.81%chance

212603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1873

534

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

43.92%chance

72471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11299

8850

Will the Tadpole Experiment experiment be independently replicated in the next 10 years?

Jul 4, 10:42 PMJul 4, 10:40 PM

22.67%chance

41063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

541

Nobel Prize by 2026 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?

Aug 1, 6:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.79%chance

19761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

965

Successful replication of 'From e-waste to living space: Flame retardants contaminating household items'?

Dec 11, 2:54 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

36.25%chance

4326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

759

Will more than 20% of marketing study replications be successful in 2025?

Jan 2, 5:58 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

41.8%chance

3190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1180

847

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

Jun 29, 5:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

35.98%chance

14110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

979

Replication attempt on 'From e-waste to living space: Flame retardants contaminating household items'?

Dec 11, 2:32 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

50.99%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

985

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
US Gov Appointments
Politics
Pentagon Innovation Chief Doug Beck Quits; Emil Michael Takes DIU Helm
Authors
11
3 months ago

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