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Prediction markets for Replicator
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2026?
Feb 24, 9:01 AMJan 2, 12:40 AM
1%chance
4173665
OptionVotes
6112
838
Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?)
May 4, 12:55 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM
42.54%chance
1319816
OptionVotes
1262
1250
Will there be an open replication of DeepSeek v3 for <$10m?
Jan 27, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
36.84%chance
223112
OptionVotes
1309
764
AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
77.81%chance
212603
OptionVotes
1873
534
Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?
Mar 23, 10:07 AMJan 1, 4:00 PM
24%chance
352072
OptionVotes
1182
897
Will the Tadpole Experiment experiment be independently replicated in the next 10 years?
Jul 4, 10:42 PMJul 4, 10:40 PM
22.67%chance
41063
OptionVotes
1847
541
Nobel Prize by 2026 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?
Aug 1, 6:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
65.79%chance
19761
OptionVotes
1053
965
Successful replication of 'From e-waste to living space: Flame retardants contaminating household items'?
Dec 11, 2:54 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM
36.25%chance
4326
OptionVotes
1326
754
Nobel Prize by 2035 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?
Aug 1, 6:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
80.77%chance
12204
OptionVotes
1067
970
By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?
Jun 29, 5:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
35.98%chance
14110
OptionVotes
1006
979
Will more than 20% of marketing study replications be successful in 2025?
Jan 2, 5:58 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM
47.33%chance
265
OptionVotes
1055
948
Replication attempt on 'From e-waste to living space: Flame retardants contaminating household items'?
Dec 11, 2:32 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM
50.99%chance
120
OptionVotes
1020
980
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