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Prediction markets for Replicator
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2026?
Feb 24, 9:01 AMJan 2, 12:40 AM
1.19%chance
4273675
OptionVotes
5203
848
Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?)
May 4, 12:55 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM
47.41%chance
1349946
OptionVotes
1360
1127
Will an independent replication study confirm that poor sleep can be an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease in flies?
Oct 31, 11:03 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM
79.3%chance
264319
OptionVotes
1958
511
Will there be an open replication of DeepSeek v3 for <$10m?
Jan 27, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
41.44%chance
233562
OptionVotes
1189
841
AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
77.81%chance
212603
OptionVotes
1873
534
Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?
Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM
43.92%chance
72471
OptionVotes
11299
8850
Will the Tadpole Experiment experiment be independently replicated in the next 10 years?
Jul 4, 10:42 PMJul 4, 10:40 PM
22.67%chance
41063
OptionVotes
1847
541
Nobel Prize by 2026 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?
Aug 1, 6:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
65.79%chance
19761
OptionVotes
1053
965
Successful replication of 'From e-waste to living space: Flame retardants contaminating household items'?
Dec 11, 2:54 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM
36.25%chance
4326
OptionVotes
1331
759
Will more than 20% of marketing study replications be successful in 2025?
Jan 2, 5:58 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM
41.8%chance
3190
OptionVotes
1180
847
By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?
Jun 29, 5:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
35.98%chance
14110
OptionVotes
1006
979
Replication attempt on 'From e-waste to living space: Flame retardants contaminating household items'?
Dec 11, 2:32 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM
50.99%chance
120
OptionVotes
1025
985
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