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Top stories

Courts and Law Schools Tighten AI Guardrails After Fake Citations Spike

US Domestic Policy

Courts and Law Schools Tighten AI Guardrails After Fake Citations Spike

Authors

12

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Rule

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

12%chance

219107722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16296

4599

Will a sitting US President refuse to follow or ignore a Supreme Court ruling by 2032?

Feb 22, 3:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

55.42%chance

9217186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

530

If Trump self-pardons, will the Supreme Court rule the action unconstitutional?

Sep 19, 12:44 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

36.91%chance

5911079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1524

406

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.76%chance

4410757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

543

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM

55.35%chance

183221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

769

Will the PSUV cease to be the ruling party of Venezuela before 2028?

Jan 3, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.14%chance

71298

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1337

748

Will Amazon be ruled to have illegally maintained a monopoly in the US before the end of 2029?

Oct 24, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44%chance

191074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1380

431

Will the Supreme Court rule Maine can't limit PAC contributions?

Aug 12, 12:22 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

49.7%chance

7837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

994

Will Manifold Staff rule that the POTUS is the President in this circumstance*?

Mar 11, 1:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.1%chance

4707

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

832

When will a US court first rule that an AI is legally a person?

Dec 27, 11:36 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

32.57%chance

17583

OptionProbability

NO

YES

982

964

Will there be a US federal antitrust ruling against a 2025 frontier lab by the end of 2032?

Dec 1, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.16%chance

4350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1221

819

Will the Oscars loosen rules on AI tool use by 2030?

Jun 11, 9:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.36%chance

4129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

893

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
US Domestic Policy
Education
Politics
Courts and Law Schools Tighten AI Guardrails After Fake Citations Spike
Authors
12
1 year ago

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