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Prediction markets for SAFE

Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?

Nov 15, 8:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

40%chance

827039

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

902

Will cryopreserved brains at Tomorrow.Bio be safe until the end of 2030?

Aug 4, 10:36 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

84.78%chance

212098

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1770

759

Will OpenAI publicly state that they DON'T know how to safely align a superintelligence, after 2027?

Nov 4, 12:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.7%chance

241545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1579

737

Will there be a safe and sustainable way to get JACKED quickly by 2030?

Jul 18, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.04%chance

271490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

906

293

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.77%chance

9913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

Alex Honnold fails to climb safely through 2035

Jun 6, 11:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.07%chance

19819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

920

What will be true about safe AI?

Aug 8, 2:57 PMJan 1, 3:48 PM

3635

OptionProbability

It's mechanistically interpretable

Nobody owns it

It is aligned by a constitution

Sovereign individuals can earn a living by aligning it

It is fairly steered by us competing to align it

It's not machine learning based

It is symbolic GOFAI

It's source code exists as a market

It is Krantz

78

65

65

65

65

52

50

34

10

Will the Safe Bet Act 2024 pass?

Sep 12, 10:56 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

27.78%chance

7631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1612

620

Will there be a safe and sustainable way of avoiding the need for sleep by 2030?

Jul 18, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.06%chance

9585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

378

126

Will there be a relatively safe way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 25+ points with under $200k before 2030?

Jul 11, 11:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.2%chance

10296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

956

Will OpenAI publicly state that they know how to safely align a superintelligence before 2030?

Nov 3, 11:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.38%chance

12254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

889

Will prioritizing corrigible AI produce safe results?

Mar 12, 8:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.79%chance

4170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

901

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