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Prediction markets for Safe
Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?
Nov 15, 8:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
40%chance
837187
OptionVotes
1048
902
Will cryopreserved brains at Tomorrow.Bio be safe until the end of 2030?
Aug 4, 10:36 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
85.28%chance
222148
OptionVotes
1820
750
Will OpenAI publicly state that they DON'T know how to safely align a superintelligence, after 2027?
Nov 4, 12:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25.98%chance
251693
OptionVotes
1415
789
Will there be a safe and sustainable way to get JACKED quickly by 2030?
Jul 18, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
16.04%chance
271490
OptionVotes
906
293
Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?
Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.98%chance
10965
OptionVotes
1363
734
OptionVotes
1176
884
OptionVotes
1612
620
Will there be a safe and sustainable way of avoiding the need for sleep by 2030?
Jul 18, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
5.06%chance
9585
OptionVotes
378
126
Will medically safe ribcage depth reduction of 3+ inches be commercially available by 2100?
Aug 18, 11:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
56.04%chance
7257
OptionVotes
1149
906
Will OpenAI publicly state that they know how to safely align a superintelligence before 2030?
Nov 3, 11:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
21.38%chance
12254
OptionVotes
1011
889
OptionVotes
1110
901
Will "Nice-ish, smooth takeoff (with imperfect safe..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Oct 3, 9:33 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.52%chance
16
OptionVotes
1006
964