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Prediction markets for Safe Pro
Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?
Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM
26.43%chance
1518900
OptionVotes
1669
599
Will Jose Luis Ricon obtain a provably safe guarantee that his child (#RiconBabby) won't be autistic?
Aug 4, 9:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
20.15%chance
52938
OptionVotes
199
50
OptionProbability
41
19
12
12
10
6
Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence?
Aug 18, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
84.06%chance
13510
OptionVotes
230
44
Will bioengineering plastic digesting microbes become profitable?
Dec 31, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
16432
OptionProbability
56
35
7
2
Conditional on safe AGI being developed, will there be significant mathematical results proving its safety properties?
Feb 23, 9:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
23.75%chance
7351
OptionVotes
219
144
OptionVotes
1110
901
Lab protocol for safe TATP synthesis from fine-tuned LLM by 2025
Sep 18, 7:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
22.44%chance
887
OptionVotes
233
140
If safe-ish ASI is created, what percentage of major unsolved physics problems will it solve within a year?
Aug 10, 11:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
57%chance
879
OptionVotes
115
87
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