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Climate Change Fuels Europe’s Worst Wildfire Season on Record

10 months ago

Ancient DNA Study Pinpoints Horse Genes That Enabled Riding

Bio

Archeology

Science

Ancient DNA Study Pinpoints Horse Genes That Enabled Riding

10 months ago

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

59065

10415

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

33.66%chance

36932

OptionVotes

YES

14039

7123

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

226519

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

Before 2026

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Feb 19, 9:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

11.92%chance

284965

OptionVotes

YES

2723

368

In Fall 2026, will US computer science departments find their enrollment halved compared to previous years?

Jul 20, 5:16 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

4.08%chance

224520

OptionVotes

YES

4966

211

Will Michael Nielsen agree by 2030 that private-only funding for science significantly improves the status quo?

Feb 5, 11:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.14%chance

234002

OptionVotes

YES

1340

921

Will an Indian science fiction film make a billion dollars at the global box office this decade?

Aug 1, 4:44 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

16.29%chance

301318

OptionVotes

YES

1444

853

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM

22.82%chance

111221

OptionVotes

YES

1842

547

Will the Ontario Science Centre reopen at its 2024 location in the next 5 years?

Aug 3, 2:19 PMAug 11, 3:59 AM

18.92%chance

51075

OptionVotes

YES

2070

483

Will mainstream science be using primarily Bayesian analysis by 2035?

Aug 14, 11:50 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.67%chance

251042

OptionVotes

YES

1029

974

Will a major science publication claim that humans have "cheated death" by 2040?

Mar 7, 3:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15%chance

16743

OptionVotes

YES

1243

893

Will science make human beings biologically immortal in future?

Nov 24, 10:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.73%chance

18429

OptionVotes

YES

1226

948

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By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

In Fall 2026, will US computer science departments find their enrollment halved compared to previous years?

Will Michael Nielsen agree by 2030 that private-only funding for science significantly improves the status quo?

Will an Indian science fiction film make a billion dollars at the global box office this decade?

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

Will the Ontario Science Centre reopen at its 2024 location in the next 5 years?

Will mainstream science be using primarily Bayesian analysis by 2035?

Will a major science publication claim that humans have "cheated death" by 2040?

Will science make human beings biologically immortal in future?

Latest stories

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