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Prediction markets for Science
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
9.86%chance
831515860
OptionVotes
58238
10505
Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?
Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
33.66%chance
36932
OptionVotes
14039
7123
Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)
Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
226519
OptionProbability
68
8
7
7
7
0
An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026
Feb 19, 9:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
13.91%chance
254734
OptionVotes
2492
403
Will Michael Nielsen agree by 2030 that private-only funding for science significantly improves the status quo?
Feb 5, 11:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
12.14%chance
234002
OptionVotes
1340
921
In Fall 2026, will US computer science departments find their enrollment halved compared to previous years?
Jul 20, 5:16 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM
5.58%chance
213766
OptionVotes
4212
249
Will an Indian science fiction film make a billion dollars at the global box office this decade?
Aug 1, 4:44 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM
16.29%chance
301318
OptionVotes
1444
853
Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?
May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM
22.82%chance
111221
OptionVotes
1842
547
Will the Ontario Science Centre reopen at its 2024 location in the next 5 years?
Aug 3, 2:19 PMAug 11, 3:59 AM
18.92%chance
51075
OptionVotes
2070
483
Will mainstream science be using primarily Bayesian analysis by 2035?
Aug 14, 11:50 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
33.67%chance
251042
OptionVotes
1029
974
Will a major science publication claim that humans have "cheated death" by 2040?
Mar 7, 3:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
15%chance
16743
OptionVotes
1243
893
Will science make human beings biologically immortal in future?
Nov 24, 10:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
88.73%chance
18429
OptionVotes
1226
948
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