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Prediction markets for shooting

Will either China or the United States shoot down a manned aircraft belonging to the other one before 2025?

Feb 10, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.1%chance

218125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2423

821

Who is behind the Idaho firefighter shootings?

Jun 30, 2:07 AMJan 2, 3:07 AM

334555

OptionProbability

Individual suffering from psychosis or other mental illness, no clear other motive

Political/terrorist actor(s)

Other

General conspiracy theorist

Drug-related actor(s) (lab, grow op, etc)

Law enforcement / government friendly fire

56

24

10

5

4

2

Which developed country will have the highest number of school shooting deaths per capita in 2025?

Feb 3, 11:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

212345

OptionProbability

Austria

Other

Sweden

USA

Finland

62

20

9

6

2

Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2025?

Nov 9, 12:22 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

33.14%chance

241656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1420

704

How many civilians will federal LEO or military shoot with lethal munitions in California in the next 12 months

Jun 12, 7:12 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

5730

OptionProbability

1-10

0

51-100

11-50

101-250

Over 250

37

31

10

9

8

6

Will EHarding's market "Will any Democratic state legalize school shootings by the end of 2032?" resolve accurately?

Jun 2, 1:47 PMDec 31, 2:00 PM

55%chance

12519

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will a NATO aircraft shoot down a missile or drone fired towards a target in Ukraine before 2027?

Apr 15, 7:34 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

60.61%chance

18473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1195

832

How many drug connected shootings will occur in 2025 in Brussels

Feb 18, 3:38 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4147

OptionProbability

20

25

35

40

45

50

over 50

30

10

15

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

18

10

10

Was the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, on antidepressants within a year of the shooting?

Dec 7, 5:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.11%chance

679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will an F-22 Raptor shoot down a manned military aircraft before 2030?

Sep 4, 8:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.03%chance

475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

168

104

How many people will be killed in the next major mass shooting (20 killed) in the US?

May 3, 7:13 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

142

Elias Rodriguez from DC shooting pleads guilty before 2026?

May 22, 8:40 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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