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Prediction markets for Shorts
Will an AI Generated YouTube Short have more than 500 million views before the end of 2025?
Oct 5, 10:26 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM
71.63%chance
4915010
OptionVotes
1589
629
In 2025, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short story to a prompt?
Mar 2, 7:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
64.25%chance
474078
OptionVotes
2121
1122
Neural Nets will write award-winning short stories and publishable 50k-word books by the end of 2025
Mar 28, 9:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.48%chance
322884
OptionVotes
1793
691
Will the person cast as Link in the Legend of Zelda movie be short?
Nov 8, 12:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
83.16%chance
131962
OptionVotes
2148
538
Will there be a platform that provides personalized short movies by 2030?
Mar 8, 6:15 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
79.57%chance
15560
OptionVotes
997
881
A single neural network will win multiple top short story awards (for many stories) before 2026. No editing.
May 19, 4:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
23.03%chance
16541
OptionVotes
1194
914
Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?
Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM
59.88%chance
19407
OptionVotes
1081
928
If AI becomes economically dominant will we see Universal Basic Income (UBI) become a reality shortly thereafter?
Sep 28, 9:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
38.01%chance
17375
OptionVotes
1022
950
Will Ukraine demonstrate a domestically-produced short-range ballistic missile by the end of 2025?
Oct 23, 10:48 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
46.91%chance
9330
OptionVotes
1064
940
Will "Simple versus Short: Higher-order degeneracy ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Sep 15, 2:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.16%chance
2151
OptionVotes
1150
978
Will "Do confident short timelines make sense?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jul 16, 2:14 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15.26%chance
234
OptionVotes
1014
917
Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.88%chance
110
OptionVotes
1010
941
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