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Prediction markets for Shorts
[short fuse] One Nation gets at least 4 seats in the South Australian election?
Mar 22, 10:53 AMMar 29, 10:52 AM
85%chance
1824103
OptionVotes
2380
420
In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?
Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 1, 4:00 AM
15.39%chance
468196
OptionVotes
2345
426
SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash
Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
64.45%chance
282673
OptionVotes
1346
743
Will there be a platform that provides personalized short movies by 2030?
Mar 8, 6:15 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
79.57%chance
15560
OptionVotes
997
881
Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?
Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM
59.88%chance
19407
OptionVotes
1081
928
Will I get an A on my short story about prediction markets? [EP. 2]
Mar 5, 2:04 AMApr 4, 2:01 AM
57.2%chance
4292
OptionVotes
1156
865
Will "Do confident short timelines make sense?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jul 16, 2:14 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
20.05%chance
6237
OptionVotes
1062
690
Will a stage at the 2026 Giro d'Italia be cut short due to pro-Palestine protests?
Sep 15, 3:20 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM
34.12%chance
465
OptionVotes
139
72
Will a stage at the 2026 Tour de France be cut short due to pro-Palestine protests?
Sep 15, 3:20 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM
43.05%chance
555
OptionVotes
115
87
Will a stage at the 2026 Vuelta a Espana be cut short due to pro-Palestine protests?
Sep 15, 3:21 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM
58.35%chance
352
OptionVotes
118
84
Will "A short course on AGI safety from the GDM Ali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 29, 5:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
126
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.88%chance
110
OptionVotes
1010
941
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