OptionVotes
YES
NO
3598
278
169
59
OptionProbability
google.com
Other
youtube.com
openai.com
twitter.com
baidu.com
instagram.com
40
35
21
2
1
90
5
3
0
1460
827
ChatGPT (or other OpenAI)
Gemini (or other Google)
Claude (or other Anthropic)
Grok (or other xAI)
DeepSeek
78
14
X maintains higher daily active users than Threads through mid-2026
Threads overtakes X in daily active users by mid-2026
X and Threads reach parity in daily active users by mid-2026
Market resolves N/A due to unclear measurement methodology
Bluesky overtakes X in daily active users by mid-2026
Another platform (not Threads or Bluesky) overtakes X by mid-2026
56
20
11
6
google.com > youtube.com > facebook.com
google.com > youtube.com > instagram.com
51
29
19
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