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Smart Data News

    Prediction markets for Smart Data

    Will this market get Calaveras AI a hire by EOY 2025?

    Aug 12, 7:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    35.59%chance
    293914

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    13454

    7433

    Will AI become a strategic geopolitical weapon by 2040?

    Sep 5, 10:13 AMDec 31, 11:51 PM
    80%chance
    553582

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1081

    902

    OptionProbability

    Wants to have kids

    Believes abortion is ethically acceptable

    Has a net worth of more than 1 million dollars

    Has been to burning man

    Lives in the United States

    Is a libertarian

    Works for an AI company

    Has done DMT

    Is a gun owner

    Likes being in nature

    Prefers summer over winter

    Likes roller-coasters

    Is agnostic

    Believes Deontology is a better ethical theory than either Utilitarianism or Nicomachean ethics

    Wants to help organize an 8 billion person online intellectual orgy by integrating surveys into decision markets in a way that allows sovereign individuals to mint their own nonfungible assets by interpretably defining alignment criteria.

    Grew up in a stable family

    Believes it is possible that aliens are real.

    Meditates regularly

    Is a vegetarian

    Is a materialist (in the philosophical sense)

    Has been a guest on Live Boeree's podcast.

    Lives in California

    Has been a guest on Curt Jaimungal's podcast.

    Has been a guest on the bankless podcast.

    Has been a guest on the network state podcast.

    Has been a guest on the American Alchemy podcast.

    Has been a guest on the Danny Jones podcast.

    Has attended Manifest

    Will believe that ants are sentient and experience qualia

    Is atheist

    Believes that aliens are real.

    Has been a guest on Lex Fridman's podcast.

    Believes the death penalty is ethically acceptable

    Has a Manifold account with over 10k mana profit

    Is a Democrat

    Has a podcast

    Is under 40 years old

    Is a veteran

    Already knows her personally as of August 2025

    Rides a motorcycle

    Drinks more than once a week on average

    Has been a guest on the cognitive revolution podcast.

    Has been a guest on Dwarkesh's podcast.

    Is taller than 6' 3"

    Has had kids with someone else

    Has a pilot's license

    Is a member of a network state community

    Has a PHD

    Is a vegan

    Has blackbelt in a martial art

    Wants to live primarily in Austin, TX

    Knows how to solve the alignment problem

    Smokes

    Has a net worth of more than 100 million dollars

    Is @Krantz

    Is Nate Soares (in a state that wants to have kids)

    99

    91

    87

    85

    80

    76

    70

    69

    69

    69

    66

    64

    63

    63

    62

    59

    59

    56

    55

    55

    55

    52

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    46

    46

    45

    41

    40

    39

    36

    36

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    30

    28

    27

    26

    24

    24

    24

    17

    15

    15

    14

    5

    4

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1528

    655

    OptionProbability

    Within 12 months after Eliezer reviews my work.

    2050

    2100

    2030

    2040

    2028

    2029

    2027

    2026

    2025

    72

    41

    31

    26

    26

    20

    20

    14

    10

    8

    Will AI become a strategic geopolitical weapon by 2040?

    Sep 9, 4:30 PMSep 16, 8:59 PM
    60.85%chance
    7185

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    161

    103

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    150

    67

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