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Top stories

Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt

US Domestic Policy

Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt

Authors

33

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Speaker

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

26.74%chance

59478

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16553

6041

Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026?

Nov 27, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

77418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7000

143

Will Mike Johnson be removed as Speaker before 2027?

Oct 27, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.95%chance

163198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1606

623

Who will be the next female Speaker of the House?

Mar 23, 2:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

201875

OptionProbability

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)

Katherine Clark

Marjorie Taylor Greene (MTG)

87

7

6

1

Will there be a transgender president before a transgender speaker of the house.

Apr 2, 12:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.37%chance

201611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2128

573

Will hakeem jeffries be house speaker after the 2026 mid terms?

Jan 11, 4:34 AMNov 7, 4:34 AM

81385

OptionProbability

Yes

No, a different democrat will be

No, the speaker won't be a democrat

84

9

8

Will any member of "The Squad" become Speaker of the House before 2033?

Aug 8, 7:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.8%chance

111165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2149

465

Will English be the first language to pass 2 billion speakers worldwide?

Jan 29, 4:11 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

87.98%chance

13712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1604

876

Will Hakeem Jeffries be Speaker following the 2026 Election?

Aug 31, 2:07 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

76%chance

11632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

610

Will "MAGA speakers at NatCon were mostly against AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 9, 2:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.01%chance

3548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

933

Will Mike Johnson have a full term as Speaker of the House before another Republican becomes Speaker?

Nov 5, 7:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

79.82%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

35

Will a Speaker of the House of Representatives ascend to the Presidency in the 21st century?

Apr 14, 2:55 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

23.3%chance

5107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

102

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
US Domestic Policy
Washington DC
Politics
Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt
Authors
33
1 year ago

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