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Top stories

Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt

US Domestic Policy

Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt

Authors

33

11 months ago

Prediction markets for Speaker

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

29.25%chance

48446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15553

6430

Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026?

Nov 27, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.06%chance

43710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2836

353

Will Mike Johnson be removed as Speaker before 2027?

Oct 27, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.95%chance

163198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1606

623

Will there be a transgender president before a transgender speaker of the house.

Apr 2, 12:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.37%chance

201611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2128

573

LWCW 2026 keynote speaker [ADD OPTIONS]

Aug 8, 9:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

171444

OptionProbability

Other

Nate Soares

Anna Riedl

Oliver Habryka

Alysa Liu

Nuño Sempere

Aella

Gwern

Gwern

Tetra

Zvi Mowshowitz

Tim Urban

Joscha Bach

Scott Alexander

Duncan Sabien

David Gerard

Eliezer Yudkowksy

24

17

11

9

7

5

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

Will any member of "The Squad" become Speaker of the House before 2033?

Aug 8, 7:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.8%chance

111165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2149

465

On what dates will Lindsay Hoyle still be Speaker of the House?

Jul 2, 2:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5991

OptionProbability

2025-09-30 / 30th September 2025

2025-12-31 / 31st December 2025

2026-12-31 / 31st December 2026

100

100

88

Who will be the first black Speaker of the House?

Oct 24, 7:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8627

OptionProbability

Hakeem Jeffries

Other

Byron Donalds

Elon Musk

84

14

2

1

Will "MAGA speakers at NatCon were mostly against AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 9, 2:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.01%chance

3548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

933

Will English be the first language to pass 2 billion speakers worldwide?

Jan 29, 4:11 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.1%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1404

906

Will the Speaker of the House be Someone Other Than Mike Johnson OR Hakeem Jeffries before March 1st, 2027?

Feb 9, 4:02 AMMar 2, 4:59 AM

15.57%chance

10399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

The number of daily Irish speakers will increase in the next Irish census

Nov 15, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.24%chance

9113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

90

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
US Domestic Policy
Washington DC
Politics
Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt
Authors
33
11 months ago

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