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Top stories

Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt

US Domestic Policy

Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt

Authors

33

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Speaker

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

33.66%chance

36932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14039

7123

Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026?

Nov 27, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.06%chance

43710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2836

353

Will Mike Johnson be removed as Speaker before 2027?

Oct 27, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.91%chance

153123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1531

653

Mike Johnson gone as House speaker before Nov 3 2026?

Nov 24, 9:29 PMNov 4, 10:59 AM

27%chance

252434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

340

104

Will there be a transgender president before a transgender speaker of the house.

Apr 2, 12:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.37%chance

201611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2128

573

Will any member of "The Squad" become Speaker of the House before 2033?

Aug 8, 7:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.24%chance

101065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2049

488

Who will be the first black Speaker of the House?

Oct 24, 7:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8627

OptionProbability

Hakeem Jeffries

Other

Byron Donalds

Elon Musk

84

14

2

1

Will "MAGA speakers at NatCon were mostly against AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 9, 2:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.01%chance

3548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

933

Will English be the first language to pass 2 billion speakers worldwide?

Jan 29, 4:11 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.1%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1404

906

Will the Speaker of the House be Someone Other Than Mike Johnson OR Hakeem Jeffries before March 1st, 2027?

Feb 9, 4:02 AMMar 2, 4:59 AM

15.57%chance

10399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

The number of daily Irish speakers will increase in the next Irish census

Nov 15, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.24%chance

9113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

90

Will the Speaker of the House of Representatives still be in the Presidential line of succession in 2050?

Apr 14, 3:55 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

76.5%chance

3103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

88

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
US Domestic Policy
Washington DC
Politics
Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt
Authors
33
10 months ago

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