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Top stories

Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt

US Domestic Policy

Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt

Authors

33

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Speaker

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

40.83%chance

34932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12039

8306

Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026?

Nov 27, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.06%chance

43710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2836

353

Will Mike Johnson be removed as Speaker before 2027?

Oct 27, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.77%chance

132611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

Will there be a transgender president before a transgender speaker of the house.

Apr 2, 12:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.37%chance

201611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2128

573

Will any member of "The Squad" become Speaker of the House before 2033?

Aug 8, 7:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.24%chance

101065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2049

488

Will Marjorie Taylor Greene ever become Speaker of the House?

Feb 7, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.67%chance

13818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

715

113

Democratic House Speaker before 30 November 2026?

Feb 1, 11:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

19.04%chance

6611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

483

100

Who will serve as a speaker of the House of Representatives before the end of the 122nd Congress?

Dec 13, 9:18 PMJan 3, 5:00 PM

8553

OptionProbability

Mike Johnson

Hakeem Jeffries

Steve Scalise

Jim Jordan

Tom Emmer

Patrick McHenry

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Elise Stefanik

Donald Trump

Jim Clyburn

Elon Musk

Kevin McCarthy

Nancy Pelosi

100

63

10

10

10

10

8

6

5

5

5

3

2

Will "MAGA speakers at NatCon were mostly against AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 9, 2:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.01%chance

3548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

933

Will English be the first language to pass 2 billion speakers worldwide?

Jan 29, 4:11 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.1%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1404

906

Will any Speaker of the House other than McCarthy be removed by the end of 2040?

Oct 24, 8:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

76.3%chance

8115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

126

The number of daily Irish speakers will increase in the next Irish census

Nov 15, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.24%chance

9113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

90

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
US Domestic Policy
Washington DC
Politics
Air Force Reverses Stance, Grants Military Honors to Ashli Babbitt
Authors
33
5 months ago

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