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Prediction markets for Speaker
Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?
Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
40.83%chance
34932
OptionVotes
12039
8306
Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026?
Nov 27, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11.06%chance
43710
OptionVotes
2836
353
OptionProbability
63
15
15
7
Will Mike Johnson be removed as Speaker before 2027?
Oct 27, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
38.85%chance
142861
OptionVotes
1255
797
Mike Johnson gone as House speaker before Nov 3 2026?
Nov 24, 9:29 PMNov 4, 10:59 AM
42.37%chance
212257
OptionVotes
249
152
Will there be a transgender president before a transgender speaker of the house.
Apr 2, 12:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
16.37%chance
201611
OptionVotes
2128
573
Will a member of my debate team win the "Top Speaker" award at our April debate tournament?
Mar 11, 11:18 AMApr 21, 11:59 PM
62.32%chance
91098
OptionVotes
1286
777
In which year will the US have its next female Speaker of the House?
Mar 23, 2:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
121069
OptionProbability
77
15
5
1
1
Will any member of "The Squad" become Speaker of the House before 2033?
Aug 8, 7:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
19.24%chance
101065
OptionVotes
2049
488
Will "MAGA speakers at NatCon were mostly against AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 9, 2:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.01%chance
3548
OptionVotes
1534
933
Will English be the first language to pass 2 billion speakers worldwide?
Jan 29, 4:11 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
86.1%chance
12508
OptionVotes
1404
906
Will the Speaker of the House be Someone Other Than Mike Johnson OR Hakeem Jeffries before March 1st, 2027?
Feb 9, 4:02 AMMar 2, 4:59 AM
34.3%chance
8298
OptionVotes
138
72
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