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Wang Yi Visit Spurs India-China Thaw, Beijing Vows Rare-Earth Supply
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15 hours ago
Prediction markets for Special
Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?
Jul 23, 1:46 AMJun 1, 3:59 AM
37.42%chance
249552
OptionVotes
1293
773
What party will win the special election to fill JD Vance's Senate seat?
Nov 7, 3:28 AMNov 4, 5:59 AM
287910
OptionProbability
65
35
1
OptionProbability
60
16
15
9
What will be true of the Hollow Knight: Silksong Special Announcement?
Aug 19, 7:48 PMAug 21, 7:43 PM
52270
OptionProbability
88
86
85
50
5
3
Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?
Nov 12, 8:18 PMNov 11, 1:29 PM
74.82%chance
61554
OptionVotes
1724
580
Will a non specialized AI assistant master French grammar rule of "L'accord du participe passé" at the end of 2025 ?
Dec 10, 9:33 AMDec 31, 10:00 PM
63.34%chance
291498
OptionVotes
1059
922
[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?
Aug 7, 7:30 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM
48.8%chance
101072
OptionVotes
1024
976
Will Texas enact new a congressional map during its second 2025 special session?
Aug 15, 4:23 PMSep 5, 10:59 PM
65.79%chance
8470
OptionVotes
1387
721
Which organization will most likely build the AI that destroys humanity? (See special resolution method)
May 27, 4:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
7268
OptionProbability
46
34
12
3
3
2
1
Will a special prosecutor be appointed by a federal court to prosecute a member of the Trump administration in 2025?
Apr 16, 10:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10.41%chance
10261
OptionVotes
293
34
Will there be a special guest at the Super Bowl halftime show? 🏈 Super Bowl LX
Feb 10, 9:03 PMFeb 9, 4:59 AM
82.88%chance
2120
OptionVotes
220
45
Will ""The Solomonoff Prior is Malign" is a special..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Nov 25, 5:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15.79%chance
12
OptionVotes
102
89