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Top stories

Trump Threatens Lawsuit to Overturn Senate Blue Slip Tradition

Trump Threatens Lawsuit to Overturn Senate Blue Slip Tradition

Authors

12

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Speech or Debate Clause

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.96%chance

743637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

834

JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention

Apr 14, 6:51 PMAug 30, 10:59 PM

9%chance

142180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3180

314

Will the UK government mention quantum computing in an official policy speech within the next month?

Jan 30, 7:09 AMMar 2, 7:04 AM

52.98%chance

361914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1865

1732

Will any American citizen be extradited to the UK or elsewhere for free speech by 2040 end?

Aug 10, 8:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.45%chance

71416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

741

Will Manifold take down any user content due to legal threats that violate free speech principles before 2030?

Mar 6, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.5%chance

71095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1409

710

By 2028, AI can transcribe human speech with a variety of accents in a noisy environment as well as a typical human can

Jan 5, 10:55 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

89.25%chance

131018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

455

147

Will Trump ever give a more aggressive speech than this?

Sep 2, 7:35 AMJan 10, 5:59 AM

51.29%chance

14509

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1213

732

If I remain living in Canada, will I be subject to any government sanction on speech before 2027?

Mar 27, 12:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

7494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

600

97

Nathan Cofnas wins his free speech case?

Sep 29, 8:58 PMJan 1, 9:53 PM

85.78%chance

4401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

246

41

Will Sir Keir Starmer say “bitter lesson” in relation to AI in a public speech before 2029?

Jan 13, 5:18 PMJan 21, 9:59 AM

17.59%chance

4116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

46

Xi refers to people including their family size in his speeches, generally

Aug 20, 8:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.04%chance

689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

61

How many years until a fighter gets kicked out of the UFC for politically incorrect speech?

Jan 22, 10:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.4%chance

238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

48

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
US Legislation
US Judiciary
Politics
Trump Threatens Lawsuit to Overturn Senate Blue Slip Tradition
Authors
12
5 months ago

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