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Top stories

Trump Threatens Lawsuit to Overturn Senate Blue Slip Tradition

Trump Threatens Lawsuit to Overturn Senate Blue Slip Tradition

Authors

12

4 days ago

Prediction markets for Speech or Debate Clause

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.96%chance

743637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

834

6. An AI system will pass the Turing test for speech.

Dec 27, 8:17 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.97%chance

142307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1564

640

JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention

Apr 14, 6:51 PMAug 30, 10:59 PM

9%chance

142180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3180

314

Will any American citizen be extradited to the UK or elsewhere for free speech by 2040 end?

Aug 10, 8:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.45%chance

71416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

741

Will Manifold take down any user content due to legal threats that violate free speech principles before 2030?

Mar 6, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.5%chance

71095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1409

710

Which company will have the leading text-to-speech market share in Dec 2025?

Apr 17, 4:18 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24700

OptionProbability

OpenAI

ElevenLabs

Google

Amazon

Microsoft

Other

43

32

10

6

4

4

Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) feature natural and convenient speech-to-speech capabilities?

Apr 25, 11:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.6%chance

10467

OptionVotes

NO

YES

454

92

Will Trump ever give a more aggressive speech than this?

Sep 2, 7:35 AMJan 10, 5:59 AM

36.86%chance

13259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

964

Will a brain-computer interface successfully restore speech in a patient with severe speech impairment?

Jul 29, 4:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.73%chance

4223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

937

Von der Leyen's September 2025 State of the Union speech mentions "competitiveness" at least 10 times

Aug 16, 11:12 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

79%chance

8178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

52

Xi refers to people including their family size in his speeches, generally

Aug 20, 8:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.04%chance

689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

61

Will someone make a public reference to James D. Watson (eg in a speech) for Hereticon 2025?

Jun 12, 10:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.02%chance

316

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

94

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
US Legislation
US Judiciary
Politics
Trump Threatens Lawsuit to Overturn Senate Blue Slip Tradition
Authors
12
4 days ago

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