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Top stories

Trump Threatens Lawsuit to Overturn Senate Blue Slip Tradition

Trump Threatens Lawsuit to Overturn Senate Blue Slip Tradition

Authors

12

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Speech or Debate Clause

Will communists arrest me for speech violations within the next year?

Jul 29, 9:54 PMJul 29, 9:48 PM

21.09%chance

145194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1934

517

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

773999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

832

JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention

Apr 14, 6:51 PMAug 30, 10:59 PM

8.03%chance

172385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3385

295

Will any American citizen be extradited to the UK or elsewhere for free speech by 2040 end?

Aug 10, 8:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.45%chance

71416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

741

Will Manifold take down any user content due to legal threats that violate free speech principles before 2030?

Mar 6, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.5%chance

71095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1409

710

By 2028, AI can transcribe human speech with a variety of accents in a noisy environment as well as a typical human can

Jan 5, 10:55 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

89.25%chance

131018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

455

147

Will Trump ever give a more aggressive speech than this?

Sep 2, 7:35 AMJan 10, 5:59 AM

50%chance

16611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1189

756

Will Sir Keir Starmer say “bitter lesson” in relation to AI in a public speech before 2029?

Jan 13, 5:18 PMJan 21, 9:59 AM

12.34%chance

5166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

266

38

Xi refers to people including their family size in his speeches, generally

Aug 20, 8:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.04%chance

689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

61

How many years until a fighter gets kicked out of the UFC for politically incorrect speech?

Jan 22, 10:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.4%chance

238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

48

Will I think individual freedom of speech is lower on election day, 2028?

Nov 7, 12:13 AMNov 6, 11:59 PM

49.16%chance

117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

983

Will MS Now show Trumps full 2026 RNC convention speech?

Sep 7, 6:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13%chance

117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
US Legislation
US Judiciary
Politics
Trump Threatens Lawsuit to Overturn Senate Blue Slip Tradition
Authors
12
1 year ago

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