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Top stories

Trump Threatens Lawsuit to Overturn Senate Blue Slip Tradition

Trump Threatens Lawsuit to Overturn Senate Blue Slip Tradition

Authors

12

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Speech or Debate Clause

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

773999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

832

JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention

Apr 14, 6:51 PMAug 30, 10:59 PM

8.03%chance

172385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3385

295

Will any American citizen be extradited to the UK or elsewhere for free speech by 2040 end?

Aug 10, 8:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.45%chance

71416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

741

Will Manifold take down any user content due to legal threats that violate free speech principles before 2030?

Mar 6, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.5%chance

71095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1409

710

If I remain living in Canada, will I be subject to any government sanction on speech before 2027?

Mar 27, 12:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.26%chance

11599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

518

102

Will Trump ever give a more aggressive speech than this?

Sep 2, 7:35 AMJan 10, 5:59 AM

51.29%chance

14509

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1213

732

Nathan Cofnas wins his free speech case?

Sep 29, 8:58 PMJan 1, 9:53 PM

85.78%chance

4401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

246

41

before 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona?

May 18, 3:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.65%chance

4225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

325

31

Will Sir Keir Starmer say “bitter lesson” in relation to AI in a public speech before 2029?

Jan 13, 5:18 PMJan 21, 9:59 AM

12.34%chance

5166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

266

38

The TSA or U.S. Border Security will experiment with automating their ID checks / Q&A using voice synthesis and speech recognition before the end of 2026

Dec 27, 3:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.59%chance

9129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

152

Xi refers to people including their family size in his speeches, generally

Aug 20, 8:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.04%chance

689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

61

How many years until a fighter gets kicked out of the UFC for politically incorrect speech?

Jan 22, 10:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.4%chance

238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

48

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
US Legislation
US Judiciary
Politics
Trump Threatens Lawsuit to Overturn Senate Blue Slip Tradition
Authors
12
10 months ago

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