Speech or Debate Clause News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Speech or Debate Clause
Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?
Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
21.96%chance
743637
OptionVotes
1099
834
6. An AI system will pass the Turing test for speech.
Dec 27, 8:17 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM
70.97%chance
142307
OptionVotes
1564
640
JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention
Apr 14, 6:51 PMAug 30, 10:59 PM
9%chance
142180
OptionVotes
3180
314
Will any American citizen be extradited to the UK or elsewhere for free speech by 2040 end?
Aug 10, 8:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
35.45%chance
71416
OptionVotes
1349
741
Will Manifold take down any user content due to legal threats that violate free speech principles before 2030?
Mar 6, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
33.5%chance
71095
OptionVotes
1409
710
Which company will have the leading text-to-speech market share in Dec 2025?
Apr 17, 4:18 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
24700
OptionProbability
43
32
10
6
4
4
Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) feature natural and convenient speech-to-speech capabilities?
Apr 25, 11:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
80.6%chance
10467
OptionVotes
454
92
Will Trump ever give a more aggressive speech than this?
Sep 2, 7:35 AMJan 10, 5:59 AM
36.86%chance
13259
OptionVotes
1050
964
Will a brain-computer interface successfully restore speech in a patient with severe speech impairment?
Jul 29, 4:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
46.73%chance
4223
OptionVotes
1068
937
Von der Leyen's September 2025 State of the Union speech mentions "competitiveness" at least 10 times
Aug 16, 11:12 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM
79%chance
8178
OptionVotes
194
52
Xi refers to people including their family size in his speeches, generally
Aug 20, 8:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
35.04%chance
689
OptionVotes
127
61
Will someone make a public reference to James D. Watson (eg in a speech) for Hereticon 2025?
Jun 12, 10:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
53.02%chance
316
OptionVotes
106
94
Latest stories
Latest stories