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Prediction markets for Standard
Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?
Jan 14, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
78.44%chance
7412334
OptionVotes
1927
1123
Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before 2027?
Jun 25, 4:00 PMJan 2, 12:59 AM
52.9%chance
193601
OptionVotes
1060
944
Will the US change to permanent Standard Time before 2030?
Oct 30, 5:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
28.01%chance
292209
OptionVotes
1127
916
Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?
Jul 23, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.74%chance
321956
OptionVotes
6059
5939
Will NASA establish a standard time zone or timekeeping method for the moon by the end of 2026
Apr 22, 4:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
64.3%chance
271788
OptionVotes
1082
593
Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?
Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM
26.41%chance
131634
OptionVotes
1675
600
Will any top-20 US or Canadian brokerage publicly endorse an open investing-agent standard by the end of 2027?
May 11, 4:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
73.26%chance
61214
OptionVotes
1655
604
OptionVotes
1089
956
Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI?
Feb 21, 9:22 PMFeb 22, 6:59 AM
71.42%chance
33889
OptionVotes
1108
943
Will women lower their standards for men on average by 2033?
Mar 26, 12:32 AMMar 26, 11:59 PM
20%chance
18806
OptionVotes
1213
919
By the end of 2050, will it be possible to quickly increase an adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations?
Mar 27, 1:00 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
28.01%chance
25604
OptionVotes
1017
892
Will the majority of US high school standardized tests be administered and graded by AI systems by 2030?
Jun 29, 5:42 AMJan 7, 5:59 AM
39.06%chance
8320
OptionVotes
1249
801
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