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State of the Union News

    Prediction markets for State of the Union

    What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?

    Jan 22, 7:24 AMJan 24, 6:46 PM
    26957052

    OptionProbability

    Post a Tweet

    Deny Climate Change

    Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office

    Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement

    Bomb Iran

    Increase US oil production

    Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)

    Appoint a federal judge who is rated NQ (Not Qualified) by the American Bar Association

    Enrich himself & his family financially

    Shake hands with Putin

    Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue

    Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ

    Reverse Biden's executive order on AI

    Start a war

    Have a net approval below -20% at any point

    Play golf

    Visit a golf course more than 10% of the days he spends in office

    Shake hands with Xi Jinping

    Suppress, censor, or shut down any US news media outlet (including websites)

    Suggest his face should be added to mount rushmore

    Exercise

    Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants

    Attend at least one current state leader funeral

    Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general

    Fire someone he nominated to a government position via social media (“fired by tweet”)

    Threaten a world leader with nuclear attack

    Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar

    Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time

    Visit a golf course more than 20% of the days he spends in office

    Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock

    Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court

    Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters

    Get impeached

    Shake hands with Donald Tusk

    Pardon himself

    Withdraw support for Ukraine

    Abolish the NIH

    Abolish the CDC

    Imprison his enemies and democrats

    Suggests in a speech or verified written format that Cuba join as a state

    Pardon someone with the last name Trump (excluding himself)

    Shut down left-wing pro democracy and pro science organizations

    Attempt to stay in power for a third term

    Trumped-Up Charges: Trump appoints an Attorney General whose office goes on to seek a criminal indictment against ex-President Joseph Biden.

    Advocate or support a genocide (anywhere in the world)

    Order the US military to attack US citizens on US soil

    End SBA direct lending

    Leave office early

    Use the powers of his office to hurt Elon Musk's competitors

    Eat a hamnhrb

    Reference "Situational Awareness"

    Attempt or claim to seize direct military control of DC via the Insurrection Act, martial law, or similar

    Be the subject of a successful invocation of the 25th amendment

    Pardon SBF

    Make America Great Again

    Register with the Federal Election Commission to run for president

    Make an executive order with the stated intention of slowing down AI development

    Declassify the existence of non human intelligence.

    Eliminate Daylight Savings Time

    Instruct the military to fire on protesters with live bullets, leading to at least one death

    Talk with Kim Jong Un face to face

    Order the extrajudicial killing of a (named) US citizen on US soil

    Initiate tariffs that would apply to GPUs from Taiwan

    Die

    Pass away

    Ban TikTok

    Withdraw the US from NATO

    Order the extrajudicial killing of any federal or state elected official

    Signs a bill that admits a new state to the Union.

    Order a nuclear strike

    Completely withdraw United States Forces Korea

    Here's Johnny: Trump again appoints John Bolton to an official position in his administration.

    Cry on camera

    Be in some type of official captivity at any level before the end of the planned term in 2029

    Direct the killing of a political opponent

    Do another Home Alone cameo

    Be removed via the 25th Amendment

    Buy Greenland

    Have over +20 net approval according to 538, at any point

    Sign a bill into law on day one

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    95

    89

    86

    83

    80

    79

    78

    77

    77

    76

    72

    71

    68

    67

    64

    63

    62

    54

    50

    50

    50

    49

    47

    45

    44

    43

    34

    33

    32

    29

    27

    26

    25

    24

    22

    18

    16

    16

    15

    15

    15

    14

    14

    14

    13

    12

    11

    11

    10

    9

    9

    8

    8

    7

    6

    5

    5

    3

    3

    2

    2

    0

    Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

    Jul 3, 3:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    53.3%chance
    1614186

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    11095

    8929

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1203

    942

    Will there be a state introduced or removed from the union by 2030?

    Jan 12, 9:46 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
    13.54%chance
    302442

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1939

    741

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1343

    938

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1507

    663

    OptionProbability

    A State in the Union

    Independent Country with Compact of Free Association (a la Federated States of Micronesia)

    Fully Independent Country

    United States dissolves (or similar)

    51

    32

    14

    3

    OptionProbability

    Italy

    Luxembourg

    Spain

    France

    Sweden

    43

    40

    38

    34

    34

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    170

    135

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