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State of the Union News

    Prediction markets for State of the Union

    What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?

    Jan 22, 7:24 AMJan 24, 6:46 PM
    24244548

    OptionProbability

    Post a Tweet

    Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement

    Bomb Iran

    Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)

    Enrich himself & his family financially

    Shake hands with Putin

    Reverse Biden's executive order on AI

    Play golf

    Shake hands with Xi Jinping

    Deny Climate Change

    Visit a golf course more than 10% of the days he spends in office

    Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office

    Increase US oil production

    Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time

    Fire someone he nominated to a government position via social media (“fired by tweet”)

    Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue

    Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ

    Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court

    Attend at least one current state leader funeral

    Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general

    Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar

    Threaten a world leader with nuclear attack

    Shake hands with Donald Tusk

    Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants

    Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock

    Exercise

    Pardon someone with the last name Trump (excluding himself)

    Withdraw support for Ukraine

    Visit a golf course more than 20% of the days he spends in office

    Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters

    Suppress, censor, or shut down any US news media outlet (including websites)

    Get impeached

    Suggest his face should be added to mount rushmore

    Have a net approval below -20% at any point

    Appoint a federal judge who is rated NQ (Not Qualified) by the American Bar Association

    Pardon himself

    Suggests in a speech or verified written format that Cuba join as a state

    Eliminate Daylight Savings Time

    Start a war

    Trumped-Up Charges: Trump appoints an Attorney General whose office goes on to seek a criminal indictment against ex-President Joseph Biden.

    Be the subject of a successful invocation of the 25th amendment

    Reference "Situational Awareness"

    Leave office early

    Advocate or support a genocide (anywhere in the world)

    Order the US military to attack US citizens on US soil

    End SBA direct lending

    Initiate tariffs that would apply to GPUs from Taiwan

    Use the powers of his office to hurt Elon Musk's competitors

    Eat a hamnhrb

    Pass away

    Die

    Order the extrajudicial killing of a (named) US citizen on US soil

    Pardon SBF

    Attempt to stay in power for a third term

    Make America Great Again

    Talk with Kim Jong Un face to face

    Register with the Federal Election Commission to run for president

    Declassify the existence of non human intelligence.

    Instruct the military to fire on protesters with live bullets, leading to at least one death

    Make an executive order with the stated intention of slowing down AI development

    Signs a bill that admits a new state to the Union.

    Ban TikTok

    Withdraw the US from NATO

    Here's Johnny: Trump again appoints John Bolton to an official position in his administration.

    Order the extrajudicial killing of any federal or state elected official

    Completely withdraw United States Forces Korea

    Cry on camera

    Be in some type of official captivity at any level before the end of the planned term in 2029

    Have over +20 net approval according to 538, at any point

    Direct the killing of a political opponent

    Order a nuclear strike

    Be removed via the 25th Amendment

    Do another Home Alone cameo

    Buy Greenland

    Sign a bill into law on day one

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    96

    95

    89

    89

    89

    87

    85

    85

    81

    81

    77

    76

    75

    75

    72

    71

    71

    70

    66

    66

    65

    63

    61

    59

    57

    56

    51

    49

    49

    44

    43

    41

    39

    38

    34

    33

    32

    28

    27

    26

    24

    24

    20

    18

    18

    16

    16

    16

    15

    14

    14

    13

    11

    10

    10

    9

    8

    7

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    3

    0

    Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

    Jul 3, 3:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    53.06%chance
    1514136

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    11045

    8973

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1173

    947

    Will there be a state introduced or removed from the union by 2030?

    Jan 12, 9:46 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
    15.78%chance
    281912

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1708

    781

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1293

    943

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1507

    663

    OptionProbability

    A State in the Union

    Independent Country with Compact of Free Association (a la Federated States of Micronesia)

    Fully Independent Country

    United States dissolves (or similar)

    61

    29

    9

    1

    OptionProbability

    Italy

    Luxembourg

    Spain

    France

    Sweden

    43

    40

    38

    34

    34

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    105

    77

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    170

    135

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