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Top stories

US Coast Guard Deploys Two Polar Icebreakers to Arctic for First Time Since 2013

US Foreign Policy

US Coast Guard Deploys Two Polar Icebreakers to Arctic for First Time Since 2013

Authors

15

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Storis

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8519316

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

January 6th

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Bitcoin

Violent repression of women in Iran

New York v Trump 2024

Tigray War

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

98

97

88

86

82

82

78

75

63

61

61

57

54

51

40

21

13

Is at least one of the stories about an innocent person deported by the US to prison in El Salvador substantially true?

Mar 29, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.63%chance

2318382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8486

118

In 2025, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short story to a prompt?

Mar 2, 7:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.01%chance

524788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2210

976

Will a high-profile news story about my egg freezing journey lead to problems working with clinics in the future

Sep 11, 9:27 PMDec 31, 10:19 PM

33%chance

283390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

Neural Nets will write award-winning short stories and publishable 50k-word books by the end of 2025

Mar 28, 9:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.96%chance

332934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1843

682

Is the Letitia James mortgage fraud story legit?

Apr 16, 1:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

23.47%chance

92464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1806

554

A single neural network will win multiple top short story awards (for many stories) before 2026. No editing.

May 19, 4:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.05%chance

201191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1844

771

Will "Reliable Sources: The Story of David Gerard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 12:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

85.32%chance

12755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

46

Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?

Dec 6, 1:31 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.42%chance

16748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1664

878

Will "The Story of "I Have Been A Good Bing"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Apr 1, 11:22 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

25.9%chance

24688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

974

Will The Expanse TV show return to finish the story?

Sep 10, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.99%chance

17377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

943

🇬🇧 Will the BBC’s top story be about UK heat-related deaths by end of 2030

Aug 4, 12:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 25, 2025
Aug 25, 2025
US Foreign Policy
Politics
World
US Coast Guard Deploys Two Polar Icebreakers to Arctic for First Time Since 2013
Authors
15
3 months ago

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