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US Coast Guard Deploys Two Polar Icebreakers to Arctic for First Time Since 2013

1 year ago

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8519498

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

January 6th

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

Bitcoin

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Violent repression of women in Iran

New York v Trump 2024

Russia's takeover of the US political establishment

Tigray War

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

[planecrash] Will Keltham survive the story, including epilogue?

Apr 4, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

91.75%chance

152522

OptionVotes

YES

1649

900

When will I mistake an AI-generated short story for a story from the New Yorker, in at least 1 of 5 tries?

Nov 22, 7:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

132249

OptionProbability

2026

2025

Other

2027

2023

2024

Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?

Jan 12, 12:57 AMOct 2, 11:59 PM

97.07%chance

161309

OptionVotes

YES

576

Will Joscha Bach OR janus/repligate OR nearcyan OR NickCammarata be mentioned in FanFiction.Net story by EOY2026?

Jan 13, 6:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.23%chance

2898

OptionVotes

YES

150

Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?

Dec 6, 1:31 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.42%chance

16748

OptionVotes

YES

1664

878

Will "The CIA Poisoned My Dog: Two Stories About Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 1, 10:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.91%chance

4621

OptionVotes

YES

1401

947

Will The Expanse TV show return to finish the story?

Sep 10, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.99%chance

17377

OptionVotes

YES

1043

943

Which short story will win a Hugo award in 2026?

Apr 21, 11:25 PMAug 30, 11:00 PM

2319

OptionProbability

“Laser Eyes Ain’t Everything” - Effie Seiberg (Diabolical Plots, May 16, 2025)

“10 Visions of the Future; or, Self-Care for the End of Days” - Samantha Mills (Uncanny Magazine, Issue 63)

“In My Country” - Thomas Ha (Clarkesworld, Issue 223)

“Wire Mother” - Isabel J. Kim (Clarkesworld, Issue 229)

“Six People to Revise You” - J.R. Dawson (Uncanny Magazine, Issue 62)

“Missing Helen” - Tia Tashiro (Clarkesworld, Issue 226)

What will be the outcome of the controversy concerning R. F. Kuang's Taipei Story ARC?

May 4, 8:39 PMOct 8, 8:24 PM

3281

OptionProbability

None of the above.

Official statement from Kuang or her publisher defending the passage.

Official apology from Kuang or her publisher.

Final published paper version does not include the passage.

Published electronic versions do not include the passage as of 1 month after release.

In what year will there next be a big news story about human genetic engineering in China?

Jan 1, 9:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2140

OptionProbability

2028 or later

2026

2027

2024

2025

Will "My supervillain origin story" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 30, 9:15 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.16%chance

190

OptionVotes

YES

190

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What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

[planecrash] Will Keltham survive the story, including epilogue?

When will I mistake an AI-generated short story for a story from the New Yorker, in at least 1 of 5 tries?

Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?

Will Joscha Bach OR janus/repligate OR nearcyan OR NickCammarata be mentioned in FanFiction.Net story by EOY2026?

Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?

Will "The CIA Poisoned My Dog: Two Stories About Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will The Expanse TV show return to finish the story?

Which short story will win a Hugo award in 2026?

What will be the outcome of the controversy concerning R. F. Kuang's Taipei Story ARC?

In what year will there next be a big news story about human genetic engineering in China?

Will "My supervillain origin story" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Latest stories

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Telegram