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Prediction markets for Storis
What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?
May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM
8519498
OptionProbability
98
97
88
82
82
82
78
75
63
63
62
57
54
53
51
40
21
13
[planecrash] Will Keltham survive the story, including epilogue?
Apr 4, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
91.75%chance
152522
OptionVotes
1649
900
Will I get an A on my short story about prediction markets? [EP. 2]
Mar 5, 2:04 AMMay 11, 2:01 AM
63.44%chance
24987
OptionVotes
1317
759
Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?
Dec 6, 1:31 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
90.42%chance
16748
OptionVotes
1664
878
Will "The CIA Poisoned My Dog: Two Stories About Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 1, 10:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.91%chance
4621
OptionVotes
1401
947
Will The Expanse TV show return to finish the story?
Sep 10, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.99%chance
17377
OptionVotes
1043
943
OptionProbability
28
26
13
13
13
8
Will Aella write a fiction story of at least 5000 words, available online, by mid 2026?
Apr 25, 2:22 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
33.91%chance
8220
OptionVotes
282
140
Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?
Jan 12, 12:57 AMOct 2, 11:59 PM
72%chance
7215
OptionVotes
160
62
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
50
50
50
50
50
50
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will "My supervillain origin story" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 30, 9:15 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
7.16%chance
190
OptionVotes
190
90
🇬🇧 Will the BBC’s top story be about UK heat-related deaths by end of 2030
Aug 4, 12:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
47.64%chance
150
OptionVotes
1048
954
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