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Prediction markets for System Shock
OptionVotes
3717
270
When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?
Jan 21, 6:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
182632
OptionProbability
53
17
16
12
10
Will global technology infrastructure including AI be extinct before 2100?
Sep 27, 7:02 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM
1%chance
3841
OptionVotes
865
79
Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?
Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM
59.37%chance
15591
OptionVotes
1123
765
When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?
Feb 28, 1:48 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
6237
OptionProbability
89
79
61
50
50
44
36
27
27
26
Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 5 years?
Sep 11, 1:05 AMSep 11, 9:59 PM
32%chance
8127
OptionVotes
106
96
When will an AI system autonomously build and operate a production software platform serving 1,000+ active users?
Feb 28, 1:44 AMFeb 28, 1:43 AM
381
OptionProbability
48
47
46
46
46
44
41
37
33
Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 15 years?
Sep 11, 1:06 AMSep 11, 9:59 PM
82.39%chance
380
OptionVotes
149
35
Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 20 years?
Sep 11, 1:07 AMSep 11, 9:59 PM
76.31%chance
661
OptionVotes
187
101
Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 10 years?
Sep 11, 1:06 AMSep 11, 9:59 PM
54.46%chance
439
OptionVotes
125
95
Will playing a FPS game like doom or system shock that flickers at 40Hz be shown to stimulate glymphatic clearance?
Apr 10, 9:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
41.26%chance
321
OptionVotes
141
103
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