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Top stories

Taiwan, China Clash Over World War II Narratives as Taiwan Expels Japanese Nationals Over Chinese Flag Incident and Chip Industry Warning

Authors

7

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Taiwan

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.58%chance

904510910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16189

11566

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21%chance

502150372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3140

2098

China blockades Taiwan in 2025? (media reports)

Jan 14, 7:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.72%chance

7395952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

91931

4159

If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?

Nov 12, 2:34 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

55.99%chance

27893250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2472

1266

Will Taiwan de facto be controlled by China before 2026 according to Western media?

Jan 28, 6:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.39%chance

3376158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54440

6835

Chinese invasion of Taiwan mega market (30k subsidy)

Mar 9, 1:16 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

5753637

OptionProbability

China sanctioned by US + Europe

Taiwan blockaded before invasion

CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan

CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]

Japan attacked by Chinese

Japan allows use of airbases

Malacca Strait blockaded

Guam attacked by Chinese

Oil shortages in China

US destroys TSMC factories

Taiwan surrenders

Food shortages in China

China attacks Japan

Japanese military intervention

Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month

US military intervention

Philippines attacked by Chinese

US combat troops in Taiwan

US aircraft carrier sunk

Philippines allows use of airbases

South Korea allows use of airbases

South Korean military intervention

Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months

Chinese mainland bombed

Chinese warships sunk by US submarine

Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

European military intervention

Indian military intervention

Chinese warships sunk by US airforce

China attacks South Korea

Tactical nuclear weapon used

Nuclear weapon used against civilians

78

77

70

67

61

60

56

54

54

52

51

49

49

49

48

47

45

42

40

40

40

39

39

38

38

38

37

36

35

34

33

12

10

If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?

Aug 3, 3:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.11%chance

12913086

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2432

1182

Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.72%chance

4311572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2345

1740

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

44.56%chance

477663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

957

If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030

Apr 9, 8:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

40.23%chance

926495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3092

899

In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?

Jan 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

64.77%chance

131549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1291

994

Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan

Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.12%chance

21376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

789

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 25, 2025
Aug 25, 2025
China
Politics
World
Taiwan, China Clash Over World War II Narratives as Taiwan Expels Japanese Nationals Over Chinese Flag Incident and Chip Industry Warning
Authors
7
3 months ago

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