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Prediction markets for Taiwan
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
33.58%chance
904510910
OptionVotes
16189
11566
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
21%chance
502150372
OptionVotes
3140
2098
OptionVotes
91931
4159
OptionVotes
2472
1266
Will Taiwan de facto be controlled by China before 2026 according to Western media?
Jan 28, 6:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
2.39%chance
3376158
OptionVotes
54440
6835
OptionProbability
78
77
70
67
61
60
56
54
54
52
51
49
49
49
48
47
45
42
40
40
40
39
39
38
38
38
37
36
35
34
33
12
10
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
Aug 3, 3:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
38.11%chance
12913086
OptionVotes
2432
1182
Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
37.72%chance
4311572
OptionVotes
2345
1740
If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]
Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM
44.56%chance
477663
OptionVotes
1024
957
If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
Apr 9, 8:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
40.23%chance
926495
OptionVotes
3092
899
In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?
Jan 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
64.77%chance
131549
OptionVotes
1291
994
Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan
Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.12%chance
21376
OptionVotes
1080
789