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Prediction markets for Taiwan
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
32.58%chance
1041626074
OptionVotes
16994
12988
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
11.8%chance
595183899
OptionVotes
8705
4643
OptionVotes
2958
961
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
Dec 10, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
4.9%chance
13925601
OptionVotes
25089
9790
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?
Mar 3, 3:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
4.16%chance
8516823
OptionVotes
942
112
Will the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?
Jan 31, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
72.05%chance
5015103
OptionVotes
16057
6228
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
Aug 3, 3:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
42.86%chance
13414890
OptionVotes
2229
1319
Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
27.49%chance
5212366
OptionVotes
3035
1410
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
15.64%chance
529488
OptionVotes
1270
914
If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]
Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM
55%chance
488666
OptionVotes
1225
754
If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
Apr 9, 8:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
41.11%chance
966604
OptionVotes
3058
922
Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan
Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32%chance
24591
OptionVotes
1065
819