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Prediction markets for Taiwan
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
31.71%chance
1027576874
OptionVotes
16813
13371
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
13.53%chance
586179117
OptionVotes
7681
4791
OptionVotes
3025
928
[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?
Jan 6, 10:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.97%chance
6015296
OptionVotes
8058
4691
Will the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?
Jan 31, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
72.06%chance
5015102
OptionVotes
16060
6227
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
Aug 3, 3:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
42.86%chance
13414890
OptionVotes
2229
1319
Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
27.8%chance
5012312
OptionVotes
3010
1419
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
Dec 10, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
9.49%chance
899968
OptionVotes
8768
5599
If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]
Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM
55%chance
488666
OptionVotes
1225
754
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
17.18%chance
508624
OptionVotes
1162
935
If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
Apr 9, 8:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
42.33%chance
946551
OptionVotes
3012
955
Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan
Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32%chance
24591
OptionVotes
1065
819