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Prediction markets for Take It Outside
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
71.54%chance
465679880
OptionVotes
17813
9130
OptionProbability
1118
858
OptionVotes
3389
1269
Will the UK's AI Foundation Models Taskforce survive the Labor party for a year?
Sep 18, 3:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
88.76%chance
283083
OptionVotes
1982
791
Will I confidently think in 2026 that taking 120mg MDMA once every two months is less damaging to health than drinking two beers every night for 8 days in a row once every two months?
Dec 23, 7:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
55.13%chance
562229
OptionVotes
1366
705
Will a human walk on Mars before we get a cure for cancer?
Feb 3, 7:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM
64.64%chance
241675
OptionVotes
1056
825
Will we discover alien life before we get a cure for cancer?
Feb 11, 3:03 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM
20%chance
311006
OptionVotes
1202
932
Will there be a fistfight or other similar physical altercation in US Congress (house or senate) before 2030?
Sep 26, 5:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.51%chance
16796
OptionVotes
1212
825
OptionVotes
1053
738
Will a military skirmish with at least one casualty take place outside of Earth's atmosphere before 2050?
Feb 3, 11:52 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
54.25%chance
11553
OptionVotes
275
102
OptionVotes
1169
927
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