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Top stories

Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 Sweeps LM Arena AI Benchmarks

Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 Sweeps LM Arena AI Benchmarks

Authors

4

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Text

Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?

Apr 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.85%chance

356572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2131

828

Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2026?

Mar 10, 8:38 PMJun 1, 6:29 AM

16.44%chance

423144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2211

322

Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026

Oct 14, 3:18 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.55%chance

92127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2029

493

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.62%chance

362030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

784

Would keyboards still be the primary way of text inputs to a computer for a majority of kids in 2030?

Nov 21, 11:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

81.28%chance

381444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1180

940

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

By 2028, given some text, AI can output a recording that can’t be distinguished from a voice actor, by expert listeners?

Jan 5, 10:56 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

77.15%chance

361235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

957

By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts

Jan 5, 10:41 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

23.44%chance

221163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

889

Will real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2027?

Mar 13, 3:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.02%chance

15871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1441

823

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

Will Evan Li’s text to his EX gain a response

May 3, 11:57 PMMay 31, 11:57 PM

38.91%chance

4263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

798

Text diffusion models will hit the mainstream in 2026

Jan 2, 7:46 AMJan 12, 7:59 AM

47.5%chance

3173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

952

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
AI Modeling
AI
Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 Sweeps LM Arena AI Benchmarks
Authors
4
9 months ago

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