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Top stories

Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 Sweeps LM Arena AI Benchmarks

Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 Sweeps LM Arena AI Benchmarks

Authors

4

2 days ago

Prediction markets for Text

Will more people interact with AI via voice than via text at the end of 2027?

Jan 29, 12:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

696533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1698

722

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64%chance

351950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

911

2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.

Dec 27, 8:12 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

61%chance

131668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

800

Would keyboards still be the primary way of text inputs to a computer for a majority of kids in 2030?

Nov 21, 11:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

81.28%chance

381444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1180

940

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

By 2028, given some text, AI can output a recording that can’t be distinguished from a voice actor, by expert listeners?

Jan 5, 10:56 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

80.71%chance

361185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

907

By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts

Jan 5, 10:41 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

23.44%chance

221163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

889

Will an open-source text-to-music LLM model be able to create an entire album as convincing as a human by end of 2025?

Dec 31, 3:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.75%chance

18690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

951

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

Will Ashiok, Wicked Manipulator's record be broken for most text on a recent Magic card before 2026?

Sep 30, 6:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56.78%chance

15427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

678

Will real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2027?

Mar 13, 3:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.81%chance

14371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

941

Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026

Oct 14, 3:18 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

53%chance

3151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
AI Modeling
AI
Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 Sweeps LM Arena AI Benchmarks
Authors
4
2 days ago

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