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Top stories

Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 Sweeps LM Arena AI Benchmarks

Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 Sweeps LM Arena AI Benchmarks

Authors

4

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Text

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.84%chance

453647

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1514

548

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.88%chance

232149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2724

367

Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2026?

Mar 10, 8:38 PMJun 1, 6:29 AM

47.35%chance

372082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1159

771

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.62%chance

362030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

784

Would keyboards still be the primary way of text inputs to a computer for a majority of kids in 2030?

Nov 21, 11:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

81.28%chance

381444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1180

940

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

By 2028, given some text, AI can output a recording that can’t be distinguished from a voice actor, by expert listeners?

Jan 5, 10:56 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

77.15%chance

361235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

957

By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts

Jan 5, 10:41 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

23.44%chance

221163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

889

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

Will real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2027?

Mar 13, 3:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.81%chance

14371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

941

Text diffusion models will hit the mainstream in 2026

Jan 2, 7:46 AMJan 12, 7:59 AM

47.5%chance

3173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

952

Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026

Oct 14, 3:18 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

53%chance

3151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
AI Modeling
AI
Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 Sweeps LM Arena AI Benchmarks
Authors
4
6 months ago

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