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Prediction markets for The Adjustment Bureau

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

54%chance

271120913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5047

5045

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

15.29%chance

9117542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2670

2113

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.8%chance

241865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4131

3056

Will the bureau of labor say computer programmers' (inflation-adjusted) salaries decreased between 2023 and 2030?

Jan 5, 7:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.24%chance

461473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

817

Will it be substantially more expensive to fly in the USA, in 2028?

Aug 22, 12:47 PMAug 2, 6:59 AM

22.25%chance

241036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

870

Will unemployment in the US be higher in September 2026 than in either September 2022 or September 2024?

Jan 4, 2:27 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

51.16%chance

8499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

977

Will the 12-month inflation rate announced in January 2026 be lower or equal than 3.0%

Nov 15, 11:55 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40.58%chance

4310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

826

Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2026?

Jun 1, 6:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.51%chance

7190

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

63

Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?

Nov 7, 10:17 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

55.78%chance

5146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

890

Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2027?

Jun 1, 6:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.99%chance

568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

103

Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2029?

Jun 1, 6:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.21%chance

455

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

91

How will GiveWell's 2027 Program salary expenses compare to 2022's?

Dec 3, 7:34 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

230

OptionProbability

More than 150% of 2022

90-110% of 2022

Less than 50% of 2022

70-90% of 2022

110-130% of 2022

130-150% of 2022

50-70% of 2022

21

20

12

12

12

12

11

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