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Prediction markets for The Adjustment Bureau
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM
40.98%chance
350295043
OptionVotes
6430
3801
OptionProbability
62
61
60
54
53
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
48
47
46
43
43
40
0
Will unemployment in the US be higher in September 2026 than in either September 2022 or September 2024?
Jan 4, 2:27 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM
92.57%chance
204183
OptionVotes
3529
283
Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?
May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
36.9%chance
241876
OptionVotes
4120
3063
Will the bureau of labor say computer programmers' (inflation-adjusted) salaries decreased between 2023 and 2030?
Jan 5, 7:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
38.24%chance
461473
OptionVotes
1080
817
Will it be substantially more expensive to fly in the USA, in 2028?
Aug 22, 12:47 PMAug 2, 6:59 AM
23.04%chance
261111
OptionVotes
1150
881
Will any year's US GDP reach 130% of all previous years by 2035?
Nov 3, 5:37 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM
21.68%chance
161038
OptionVotes
190
53
Will an AI Event/Consequence cause a recession by end of 2030?
Aug 14, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
23%chance
4864
OptionVotes
1830
547
Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?
Nov 7, 10:17 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
64.05%chance
15792
OptionVotes
1335
749
OptionProbability
1075
806
OptionVotes
104
97
How will GiveWell's 2027 *Program* salary expenses compare to 2022's?
Dec 3, 7:34 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM
230
OptionProbability
21
20
12
12
12
12
11