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Top stories

Trump Tariff Fears Eclipse China Security Worries in New Australian Poll

Trump Tariff Fears Eclipse China Security Worries in New Australian Poll

Authors

12

6 months ago

Prediction markets for The Australian

Kevin Rudd out as Australian ambassador to the US by EOY 2026?

Oct 23, 11:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

510050

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9962

101

When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?

Aug 8, 1:08 AMDec 15, 4:59 AM

41.25%chance

543032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1379

426

Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election?

Jul 22, 11:40 AMSep 25, 11:37 AM

68.46%chance

7760

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1475

680

Which Australian politician was groomed by foreign spies according to the head of ASIO?

Feb 29, 3:26 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

10396

OptionProbability

Stuart Robert

Sam Dastyari

Christopher Pyne

68

25

10

Who will be the next leader of the Australian Labor Party?

Nov 1, 8:23 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

12284

OptionProbability

Jim Chalmers

Other

Tanya Plibersek

Bill Shorten

Penny Wong

Chris Bowen

Richard Marles

42

27

12

7

5

4

3

Who will be the next leader of the Australian Labour Party?

Nov 3, 8:50 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

6237

OptionProbability

Jim Chalmers

Bill Shorten

Tony Burke

Jason Clare

Tanya Plibersek

Richard Marles

Penny Wong

Chris Bowen

Linda Burney

Mark Butler

Katy Gallagher

Pat Conroy

Mark Dreyfus

Catherine King

Ed Husic

Other

42

10

8

7

6

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will the Australian outback be ‘greened’ / terraformed / geo-engineered before 2100?

Sep 11, 12:17 AMJan 10, 12:59 PM

86.74%chance

4162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

31

Will One Nation win more seats than the Liberals+Nationals+QLNP+CLP combined at the next Australian federal election?

Feb 2, 12:06 PMMay 19, 1:59 PM

32%chance

597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

69

Will Labor and the Greens hold a majority of seats in the Australian Senate after the next election?

May 25, 2:30 PMJun 30, 1:49 PM

54.91%chance

891

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will Australia have more than 30 million people according to the 2031 Australian Census?

Feb 26, 4:02 PMOct 15, 1:29 PM

74.8%chance

482

OptionVotes

NO

YES

220

95

Will an SSN-AUKUS submarine enter service with the Royal Australian Navy before 2045?

Apr 4, 11:19 PMJan 3, 12:30 PM

70.55%chance

476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

76

Which MPs will be reëlected at the next Australian federal election?

May 21, 5:57 AMJun 30, 5:52 AM

123

OptionProbability

Chris Bowen

Tim Wilson

Monique Ryan

Peter Khalil

66

59

50

50

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Australia
Tariffs
Economics
Trump Tariff Fears Eclipse China Security Worries in New Australian Poll
Authors
12
6 months ago

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