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Prediction markets for The Bear
Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1400 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - bear case)
Jun 19, 10:10 PMDec 31, 6:00 PM
16.28%chance
3356351
OptionVotes
971
962
Will the four year Bitcoin bull / bear market cycle continue for the 2023-2026 cycle?
Dec 11, 6:14 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
32.87%chance
13128734
OptionVotes
10560
8654
Will the Brown Bear (Ursus arctus) become extinct in the current century?
Feb 22, 12:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
9.5%chance
151442
OptionVotes
1752
252
Will someone successfully introduce polar bears to the south pole by mid 2031
Nov 2, 2:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
14.74%chance
15424
OptionVotes
1356
900
Will the Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) become extinct in the current century?
Feb 22, 12:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
39.97%chance
17399
OptionVotes
655
374
Will the Sloth Bear (Melursus ursinus) become extinct in the current century?
Feb 22, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
22.58%chance
9310
OptionVotes
640
431
Will the American Black Bear (Ursus americanus) become extinct in the current century?
Feb 22, 12:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
14.73%chance
14306
OptionVotes
726
429
Will the Asian Black Bear (Ursus thibetanus) become extinct in the current century?
Feb 22, 1:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
19.22%chance
8287
OptionVotes
746
401
Will the Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) become extinct in the current century?
Feb 22, 1:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
33.43%chance
10182
OptionVotes
571
451
Will the Andean Bear (Tremarctos ornatus) become extinct in the current century?
Feb 22, 3:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
38.22%chance
8144
OptionVotes
562
441
Will bears be reintroduced to the UK by the end of 2040?
Apr 6, 5:31 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM
38.78%chance
9135
OptionVotes
149
145
Will "A Bear Case: My Predictions Regarding AI Progress" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 25, 1:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.13%chance
12
OptionVotes
1002
991
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